Gold Analysis (M30)- APRIL 4, 2026
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation
The current structure suggests the start of a new bearish cycle. The first drop from the top can be counted as wave 1. After that, price is moving upward in a corrective structure, forming wave 2. This correction looks weak and corrective in nature, not impulsive, which supports the bearish view.
As long as price stays below the 4800 invalidation level, the bias remains bearish. The marked sell confirmation level around 4554 is very important. Once price breaks this level with strong momentum, it will confirm that wave 3 is in play.
Wave 3 is expected to be the strongest leg, pushing price aggressively downward. After that, a small correction in wave 4 may appear, followed by another drop into wave 5. The overall target zone lies around 3900 to 3800.
This scenario favors selling on pullbacks, especially near the wave 2 completion zone, with confirmation below 4554
Scenario 2: Bullish Trend Continuation
In this scenario, the structure from the recent low is not a completed cycle but part of a larger bullish trend. The pullback seen from the top is considered corrective rather than a reversal.
The chart shows a potential channel or diagonal structure, indicating that the market may still be forming higher highs and higher lows. The recent drop can be treated as a wave 4 correction within a larger bullish impulse.
If price breaks above the 4800 level with strength, it will invalidate the bearish scenario. This breakout will confirm that buyers are still in control.
After the breakout, the market is likely to continue upward in wave 5, targeting new highs above the previous peak. The internal structure suggests continuation within a rising channel, which supports steady bullish movement.
In this case, buying on dips becomes the preferred strategy, especially after a confirmed breakout above resistance.
Right now, the key decision point is the 4800 level. Below it, bearish pressure dominates. Above it,
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