Morning traders, it'... dari Smart Jet

Morning traders, it's a bank holiday in most of the world today but we have an important NFP on schedule, TDS which is usually quite accurate in this is expecting a number above consensus but I'm not so sure about that, the data this week from the US has been one weak print after another, all below expectations, so I wouldn't be surprised if the NFP follows the same story How are we looking to trade this? Well, USDJPY still has most of my attention, we did get a nice pullback yesterday so I'm currently actively looking for short setups at these levels, technically I would be very happy with a spike during the NFP above 132.000 followed by a quick rejection and close back below 131.800 or so, that would be a nice trigger to enter some shorts to bring into next week

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Morning traders, the plan with the FOMC today is simple, we wait for the event, we listen to Powell carefully, and if he keeps the door open for another 25bps hike in June we jump into some Dollar longs at least until the NFP on Friday, if he doesn't, maybe we can get in some USDJPY shorts or most likely we will just wait for the next important fundamental development that will likely be the NFP on Friday Anyway, I think that Powell will keep the option for another 25bps hike so I would be leaning into USD longs today BUT Goldmans and others are all calling for the FED to signal a pause in hikes today, so I'm against the consensus in this view but that's also what makes this opportunity attractive, I mean, if Powell signals a pause the Dollar doesn't flinch much because that's expected already, if Powell signals another rate hike the Dollar strengthens quite a bit because that scenario is NOT priced

Smart Jet

Morning traders, keeping it sweet and short today, I think we get a technical pullback on the Dollar short term to explore prices above 1.10000 on EURUSD which I will also be happy to use to position short AUDUSD if we get the chance. Other than that, BTC still has a place in the back of my mind for that profit taking, with this latest drop I’m even more tempted to do that sooner rather than later, writing the full email note with all the technical and fundamental details that will be sent out as soon as we take profit

Smart Jet