Morning traders, sti... dari Smart Jet

Morning traders, still nothing on the calendar for today except for a speech from Lagarde later that we monitor for our EURCHF shorts, but anyway all the focus is on tomorrow for the FOMC, we can already anticipate that we expect a 75bps hike and not a 100bps, simply because if the FED was to go for a larger hike they would have "leaked" the sentiment to prepare markets as they did a few months ago with the first 75bps hike Else, a 75bps hike is fully priced in so the rate decision itself won't be that much of a market mover, but Powell's words are what the world will be watching and that's where we expect a remarkably hawkish press conference to respond to the recent surprise higher in core CPI

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Morning traders, RBA hiked 25bps overnight which was a move not priced in, and that's an interesting development, mainly because it offers us an insight into what central banks might be thinking, you know, if the RBA is overextending on its tightening then other central banks might find themselves in a similar situation, sure the context around the RBA and FED is different but still, the RBA just opened the door for the possibility of central banks doing MORE than what's currently expected With that said, this is not something that we can take action on short term but it whispers that it is time to be careful with risk assets again, more tightening not just from the FED but from other central banks too will put more pressure on the economy globally which will weigh on risk, so in this context I continue to like the Dollar

Smart Jet

Morning traders, beautiful pullback on the Dollar to start the week, we let this unfold and extend as much as it wants then we will use it to position on Dollar longs at the right levels, I'm watching AUDUSD in particular, if we can short it once again from the 0.67600 resistance zone that would be great Other than that, loads of FED speakers are scheduled this week so we listen closely for hints at what they think their next move with the interest rate is, we want to hear hawkishness from them to further support Dollar strength, simply, the more another rate hike gets supported by FED speakers the more it gets priced in and thus the more the USD strengthens Will be back with the latest from Goldmans in a minute to see if they are taking any new trade

Smart Jet

Latest from Goldmans, no new trade recommendation and nothing really actionable this week from them They acknowledge that there has been little progress with inflation tho, which is what makes me lean toward a hawkish FOMC this week but we will see, for now still watching EURUSD to enter some potential shorts over the next couple of sessions

Smart Jet