Latest from Goldmans... dari Smart Jet

19 Sep 2022, 15:51 · Views 105

Latest from Goldmans, they continue to recommend EURCHF shorts for this week's SNB meeting where they mention a potential "100bps hike or more" which we agree with, also they stay short NZDCAD mentioning expectations for further Dollar strength and a hawkish FOMC this week Looking at NZDCAD for possibly following that recommendation as well, but giving the EURCHF shorts more conviction as we see a strong case for the SNB to deliver a 100bps hike which is NOT fully priced in yet, with also hawkish guidance attached to make sure the CHF momentum remains positive as they want a strong currency to tame inflationary pressures

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Smart Jet

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Morning traders, haven't pulled the trigger on GBPUSD shorts yet nor any other Dollar long, probably I'm being a bit too prudent but I feel the timing and market structure is not as good as it should for USD longs yet, arguably the market is also lacking catalysts to get a clear direction, GDP today is unlikely to be much of a market mover but PCE tomorrow without a doubt, I keep monitoring for an entry, also keeping in mind it's month end so we could see some random month end flows over the next two days, in other words, keeping it cautious, we have a fundamentally packed week next week with the FOMC and ECB rate decisions so no need to rush into trades right now Other than that, still standing ready to take profit on the BTC longs, if I see price above 30k I will be VERY tempted to do so, will send out a full email note with more details on why we are taking profit when we do so

Smart Jet

Powell still speaking but so far not much forward guidance is being given, simply the FED is open to hiking further but also open to a pause depending on how the data develops until the next rate decision, so without much said from Powell the Dollar is rightfully basically flat after a bit of volatility on both sides, not a lot to do with it, will see where markets are at tomorrow at the London open but for now, no short term bias and no short term fundamental direction from this flat FOMC

Smart Jet

Morning traders, today what I'm mostly interested in is comments from FED speakers, we can interpret the CPI however we want but what matters is how the FED interprets it in order to decide their next move, so listening for comments on whether for them that's progress or whether they feel they need to do more, there is a speaker today and few others tomorrow so listening very closely Other than that, BoE rate decision today is one to watch too, we have no GBP exposure at the moment so it doesn't particularly interest us but Goldmans has been alerting about a possible hawkish outcome out of this event that could lead to GBP strength across the board, just something to be aware of in case you have any GBP trade running

Smart Jet

Morning traders, with the CPI everywhere I look I see notes about the likelihood of a strong print, Goldmans is also expecting a number a tiny bit above expectations so we are geared in that direction but obviously when the consensus is geared one way the risk is that the number doesn't meet the already high expectations triggering an unwind of positions So, even if the likelihood is USD strength we don't want to get into the event too long the Dollar, meaning that we will likely adjust the recently added AUDUSD short before the CPI later, then once we see the numbers and the price action around it we can start looking at some medium term direction across the board

Smart Jet

Morning traders, after two full days of lunches, dinners, and brainstorming with some quite substantially experienced fund managers I get the sentiment out there for the next 3 to 6 months is bearish indices, bullish the Dollar, and bullish the JPY, that didn't surprise me much as it's the classic recession trade, in other words, that has been the dominant topic of our debates, an upcoming recession That is the medium to long term sentiment that mostly came through in the discussions and I kinda resonate with that too, high rates sooner or later will feed through the economy and things will break leading to outflows from risk assets and inflows into safe haven Not much else to add to that, for now it's something too long term for us to act on it right away but I do keep in mind that the easier trades heading into the summer will probably be USD longs and JPY longs

Smart Jet