Morning traders, ban... dari Smart Jet

18 Apr 2022, 14:50 · Views 170

Morning traders, bank holiday in Europe, so the week starts quiet and lightens up on Thursday with Powell's speech, ideally we want to be long USDs again into that speech and then continue with Dollar longs as we head into May with the FOMC, that's the majority of the plan going forward, long USDs into a 50bps hike and QT announcement in May 4 Will be back with the latest from Goldmans in a minute

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Smart Jet

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‼️AUDUSD update, moving stop loss in profit at 0.67100‼️

Smart Jet

Morning traders, haven't pulled the trigger on GBPUSD shorts yet nor any other Dollar long, probably I'm being a bit too prudent but I feel the timing and market structure is not as good as it should for USD longs yet, arguably the market is also lacking catalysts to get a clear direction, GDP today is unlikely to be much of a market mover but PCE tomorrow without a doubt, I keep monitoring for an entry, also keeping in mind it's month end so we could see some random month end flows over the next two days, in other words, keeping it cautious, we have a fundamentally packed week next week with the FOMC and ECB rate decisions so no need to rush into trades right now Other than that, still standing ready to take profit on the BTC longs, if I see price above 30k I will be VERY tempted to do so, will send out a full email note with more details on why we are taking profit when we do so

Smart Jet

Latest from Goldmans, they are going short EURGBP, mostly as a GBP bullish trade but with a hint of EUR bearishness as well I like the trade, inflation has been stubbornly high in the UK so there is also room for a hawkish BoE rate decision this week, I will be doing some further reading about the whole context since I haven't been diving deep much into the UK data lately except the inflation numbers but we will likely get into the trade today

Smart Jet

Morning traders, the plan with the FOMC today is simple, we wait for the event, we listen to Powell carefully, and if he keeps the door open for another 25bps hike in June we jump into some Dollar longs at least until the NFP on Friday, if he doesn't, maybe we can get in some USDJPY shorts or most likely we will just wait for the next important fundamental development that will likely be the NFP on Friday Anyway, I think that Powell will keep the option for another 25bps hike so I would be leaning into USD longs today BUT Goldmans and others are all calling for the FED to signal a pause in hikes today, so I'm against the consensus in this view but that's also what makes this opportunity attractive, I mean, if Powell signals a pause the Dollar doesn't flinch much because that's expected already, if Powell signals another rate hike the Dollar strengthens quite a bit because that scenario is NOT priced

Smart Jet

Morning traders, after two full days of lunches, dinners, and brainstorming with some quite substantially experienced fund managers I get the sentiment out there for the next 3 to 6 months is bearish indices, bullish the Dollar, and bullish the JPY, that didn't surprise me much as it's the classic recession trade, in other words, that has been the dominant topic of our debates, an upcoming recession That is the medium to long term sentiment that mostly came through in the discussions and I kinda resonate with that too, high rates sooner or later will feed through the economy and things will break leading to outflows from risk assets and inflows into safe haven Not much else to add to that, for now it's something too long term for us to act on it right away but I do keep in mind that the easier trades heading into the summer will probably be USD longs and JPY longs

Smart Jet