Q3 kicks off! Here's what's moving markets today.
🌏 ASIA – Strong Japan, Mixed Region
Tokyo closed sharply higher: the Nikkei 225 surged +2.3% to ~71,675, driven by tech and AI stocks, yen weakness at 4-decade lows, and easing Iran tensions. India's Sensex +0.24% to 76,664 and Nifty 50 +0.21% to 23,917 in early trade. Thailand's SET +0.85%. Indonesia's Jakarta Composite –3.05%, the session's biggest loser. Hong Kong (SAR Establishment Day) and South Korea remain closed today.
🇺🇸 WALL STREET – Record Q2 Close
US stocks wrapped a stellar first half on June 30. The Dow hit its 2nd consecutive record close at 52,319 (+0.26%), the S&P 500 gained +0.79% to 7,449, and the Nasdaq surged +1.52% to 26,214. Q2 delivered Nasdaq +21.4%, S&P 500 +14.9%, and Dow +12.9% – best quarter in 6 years. US futures are edging slightly lower this morning.
💱 FOREX – Dollar Near 1-Year Highs
DXY holds around 101.15. EUR/USD trades near 1.1394 – a 1-year low – weighed down by the Fed's hawkish stance vs. the ECB's 2.25% deposit rate. GBP/USD ~1.3220. USD/JPY near 162.5, at its highest level in four decades. Markets are pricing ~65% odds of a Fed rate hike in September.
🥇 GOLD – Steadied Near $4,000
Gold holds around $4,000/oz – near its lowest in 8 months. Yesterday's JOLTS data (US job openings at a 2-year high of 7.6M) reinforced hawkish Fed expectations, keeping bullion under pressure. Gold has lost ~12% in June and ~14% in Q2 – worst quarterly performance in years.
🛢️ OIL – Slide Continues
WTI near $70/bbl, Brent near $73 – both logging their worst quarter since 2020 (WTI –24% in Q2). Easing Iran–US tensions, resumed Strait of Hormuz traffic, and US sanction waivers on Iranian oil continue to drag prices lower. Doha peace talks remain the key catalyst.
₿ CRYPTO – Bitcoin Under Pressure
Bitcoin near $58,294 (–2.6%), with the global crypto market cap around $2 trillion – its lowest since September 2024. Strategy's proposed $1.25B BTC liquidation continues to weigh on sentiment across the sector.
📅 TODAY'S KEY EVENTS
📊 ISM Manufacturing PMI for June – 10:00 AM ET (prior: 54.0)
🗣️ Fed Chair Warsh speaks at ECB Sintra Forum, Portugal – 13:00 GMT
🕊️ US–Iran Doha peace talks – updates expected throughout the day
⚡ TOMORROW (Thu, July 2): June Nonfarm Payrolls – market consensus ~100K; White House adviser signalled "another strong number." US markets CLOSED Friday July 4. Short week – stay alert!
⚠️ All data as of morning July 1, 2026. Trading involves significant risk. Manage it wisely – NordFX.
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