MACRO   ECONOMIC CALENDAR   June 30 – July 3, 2026  ·  GMT+8

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of 29 June – 3 July 2026

Followme News Desk  |  June 29, 2026  |  All times GMT+8

This week's economic calendar is heavily focused on China S&P Global Services PMI, UK GDP (QoQ and YoY), German CPI (MoM), U.S. Chicago PMI, U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, U.S. CB Consumer Confidence, EU CPI (YoY), U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, U.S. S&P Global and ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Crude Oil Inventories, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings and Initial Jobless Claims. Tuesday opens with a broad spread of global data. Chinese services activity, UK growth, German inflation, U.S. Consumer confidence and JOLTS all landing across the same session before Wednesday brings EU CPI, ADP and a full sweep of manufacturing data.

The strongest market-moving period comes on Thursday, where Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings and Initial Jobless Claims all drop simultaneously at 20:30 creating the week's most concentrated and potentially volatile window for USD, gold, U.S. indices and global risk sentiment. Nonfarm Payrolls is the standout release of the week. With the forecast at just 85K, less than half of May's 179K, the setup carries significant downside risk for USD if the number disappoints, and equally significant upside potential if hiring proves more resilient than the forecast implies. ADP on Wednesday serves as the key leading signal heading into Thursday's main event.

Key Events This Week

🕐 All times shown are GMT+8

Macro Analysis

🇨🇳 China S&P Global Services PMI

China's S&P Global Services PMI for June is forecast at 50.2, a marginal dip from 50.3 prior still in expansion, but barely holding the line. It's not a number that typically dominates headlines, but in a week packed with U.S. labour data, any sign that the world's second-largest economy is losing services momentum could weigh on risk sentiment and add pressure on commodity-linked currencies. A beat that pushes the reading higher would quietly support global risk appetite heading into a heavy mid-week calendar.

🇬🇧 UK GDP (QoQ and YoY)

UK GDP for Q1 is forecast at 0.60% on a quarterly basis, up from 0.20% prior, and 0.80% annually, easing from 1.00%. The quarterly upgrade is the more telling number if confirmed. It suggests the UK economy found more traction in early 2026 than the initial estimate implied. That's broadly supportive of GBP, particularly if the Bank of England is still weighing how much room it has to ease. A miss on the quarterly figure, or a weaker annual read, would put Sterling back on defensive and revive concerns about the UK's underlying growth trajectory.

🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM)

German CPI for June is forecast at -0.20%, a sharp swing from the 0.60% reading in May. A negative monthly print from the Eurozone's largest economy is hard to ignore. It would add meaningful weight to the argument that inflation in the bloc is cooling faster than the ECB expected, which could bring rate cut expectations forward. A reading worse than -0.20% may pressure EUR quickly. A surprise to the upside, particularly if prices hold closer to flats, could give EUR a brief lift if traders interpret it as evidence that German disinflation is less severe than feared.

🇺🇸 U.S. Chicago PMI

Chicago PMI for June is forecasted at 50.6, climbing back into expansion from 49.2 prior, a crossing of the 50 line that matters more than the magnitude alone. If confirmed, it signals that Midwest manufacturing conditions have turned the corner after a period of contraction, which is a modestly USD-positive development. A reading that falls back below 50 would undercut that narrative and raise questions about whether the broader manufacturing recovery seen in other PMI readings is as uniform as it looks.

🇺🇸 U.S. JOLTS Job Openings

JOLTS Job Openings for May are forecast at 6.860M, a slight pullback from 6.887M prior. In isolation, the move is small but JOLTS carries weight this week because it's the first piece of labour market data before Thursday's payroll release. A reading that holds close to or above forecast would suggest hiring demand hasn't deteriorated, keeping the jobs market narrative intact. A bigger-than-expected drop would put traders on edge about what Friday's payroll number might look like, and could start moving USD lower ahead of the main event.

🇺🇸 U.S. CB Consumer Confidence

CB Consumer Confidence for June is forecast at 91.9, easing slightly from 93.8 prior. Consumer confidence is a useful leading indicator of spending intentions if households are feeling less certain about the outlook, spending tends to follow. A reading in line with the forecast suggests sentiment is softening gradually rather than collapsing, which is manageable for USD. A sharper drop below 91.9 would raise more serious concerns about the demand side of the economy, particularly if Retail Sales data in recent weeks has already been pointing in the same direction.

🇪🇺 EU CPI (YoY)

Eurozone CPI for June is forecast at 3.20%, ticking up from 3.00% prior. A higher annual inflation reading puts the ECB in a slightly awkward position. It complicates the case for further easing, just as the German CPI the day before may be arguing the opposite. A beat on the Eurozone figure would support EUR by reducing the likelihood of a near-term ECB cut. A miss would accelerate easing expectations and weigh on the single currency, particularly if the German CPI printed the day before already moved in the same direction.

🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

ADP for June is forecast at 118K, up from 105K prior. As the most closely watched private-sector jobs estimate ahead of Thursday's official payroll release, this number tends to set the tone for positioning into the back half of the week. A beat above 118K would reinforce confidence that private hiring is recovering and support USD heading into payrolls. A mistake would immediately raise doubts about the headline figure due Thursday, and could start a dollar selloff that accelerates if the official number also disappoints.

🇺🇸 U.S. S&P Global and ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June is forecast at 54.6, pulling back slightly from 55.1 prior but still firmly in expansion. ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 53.3, up from 52.7, while ISM Manufacturing Prices are forecast at 85.3, above the prior 84.6. The PMI readings together tell a story of resilient factory activity with building cost pressures, not the kind of backdrop that gives the Fed a lot of room to ease. A set of readings that confirm both expansion and elevated prices would be straightforwardly USD-positive. A reversal in either PMI toward 50, or a surprise drop in prices, would soften that narrative.

🇺🇸 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Inventories for the week are forecast at -3.900M, a smaller drawdown than the -8.263M seen prior. Oil inventory data rarely moves USD directly, but in a week this heavy data, a large surprise particularly another outsized drawdown, could lift oil prices and add inflationary noise that complicates the Fed's picture. A smaller drawdown in line with forecast would likely pass without much market reaction beyond energy-specific pairs.

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings

This is the week's standout release, and it's a big one. Nonfarm Payrolls for June are forecast at just 85K, a dramatic slowdown from 179K prior nearly half the previous month's figure. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 4.30%, while Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) are forecast at 0.30%, up from 0.20%. A payroll print that comes in anywhere near 85K would be the weakest reading in recent months and could trigger a significant USD selloff as markets rapidly reprise Fed easing expectations. A surprise beat anything materially above 85K. It would flip the script entirely, pushing the dollar higher and taking rate cuts bets off the table. The combination of payrolls, the unemployment rate and wages all landing at the same time makes this a session where USD pairs could move sharply and quickly in either direction.

🇺🇸 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Labour Market Stability

Claims are forecast at 225K, down marginally from 227K prior. With payrolls landing in the same session, claims will play a supporting role rather than lead the reaction, but a meaningful jump above consensus would add an extra layer of concern to what may already be a soft payroll read, compounding any USD weakness in Thursday's session.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders

This week is really two stories running back to back. The first half, Tuesday through Wednesday is about building the picture: Chinese services activity, UK growth, German and Eurozone inflation, U.S. Consumer confidence, JOLTS and ADP all feed into the broader narrative before the week's real test arrives. The second half is where it gets serious. Thursday brings Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings and Initial Jobless Claims all at 20:30 and with payrolls forecast at just 85K, the setup carries more downside risk for USD than most weeks.

If the labour data holds up better than feared, payrolls beat meaningfully, the unemployment rate stays at 4.30% and wages firm up USD has room to recover and push higher into the end of the week. If payrolls land close to or below 85K, especially if the unemployment rate ticks up or wages disappoint, the Dollar could face a broad and sharp selloff as traders price in a more aggressive Fed easing cycle. ADP on Wednesday will be the first real signal of where Thursday is heading to watch it closely.

🟩 Bullish USD Scenario - Stronger Dollar Case

• Beat 85K Meaningfully - A headline number well above forecast would be the single biggest driver of USD strength this week, taking near-term Fed cut expectations off the table.
• Average Hourly Earnings Surprise to the Upside - Wages coming in above 0.30% alongside a payroll beat would reinforce the case for a patient Fed and give USD broad support.
• ADP Beats 118K Forecast - A strong private-sector jobs number would build positive positioning on Thursday and support USD heading into payrolls.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Hold Firm - Readings above forecast on both measures would signal resilient factory demand with persistent cost pressures, keeping the inflation-on narrative alive.
• JOLTS Job Openings Hold Near 6.860M - Stable hiring demand would reinforce the labour market story and reduce the downside risk around Thursday's payroll number.
• Chicago PMI Confirms Return to Expansion - A reading above 50 after last month's contraction would add to the USD-positive tone heading into mid-week.

🌡 Wild Cards - High Whipsaw Risk

• ADP vs Payrolls Split - A beat on Wednesday followed by a payroll miss Thursday could whipsaw USD pairs hard in both directions within hours.
• EU CPI vs German CPI Conflict - If the German CPI prints negative but the Eurozone CPI beats on the same day, EUR traders may struggle to find a clear direction and EUR/USD could whipsaw.
• Payrolls at Exactly 85K - A number bang on the forecast might not give the market a clean read, neither bullish nor bearish and could produce choppy, directionless price action in USD pairs.
• ISM Manufacturing Prices Spike - A reading materially above 85.3 may reignite inflation concerns and complicate the Fed's narrative, creating unexpected volatility across bonds, equities and USD.
• UK GDP Upside Surprise - A quarterly beat well above 0.60% could push GBP sharply higher against USD, moving GBP/USD in a way that drags broader Dollar sentiment.
• Consumer Confidence Drop - A reading meaningfully below 91.9 could start Tuesday's session with a risk-off tone that colours how the rest of the week's data is interpreted.

🔴 Bearish USD Scenario - Weaker Dollar Case

• Disappoint at or Below 85K - A weak headline print would be the clearest trigger for broad USD selling this week, rapidly bringing Fed easing bets back to the front of the conversation.
• Unemployment Rate Ticks Higher - Even a 0.10% rise above 4.30% alongside soft payrolls would amplify the Dollar selloff as traders price in earlier and deeper cuts.
• ADP Misses 118K Forecast - A soft private-sector jobs number would set a negative tone for Thursday and weaken USD positioning ahead of the official release.
• Average Hourly Earnings Stay Flat or Miss - Wages failing to accelerate would remove one of the remaining arguments for a hawkish Fed, adding further pressure on USD.
• JOLTS Job Openings Drop Sharply - A meaningful miss below 6.860M would signal that the labour market is softening at the demand level, not just the supply side, and could accelerate bearish USD positioning ahead of Thursday.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI Stalls Near 50 - A reading that fails to build on the recent expansion signal would raise doubts about whether the manufacturing recovery is as broad and durable as PMI data has suggested.

Check out the full calendar here:  Followme Economic Calendar Tool
Follow Followme for the newest market updates