Regarding the Dispute over the Valuation of Pool Corporation Securities关于Pool Corporation证券价值争议案

美国纽约南区联邦地区法院

纽约州纽约市

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关于Pool Corporation证券价值争议案

案号 26-CV-4714 (SAS)

2026年4月3日

出庭法官：

斯坦利·斯波金，首席法官

杰德·拉科夫，巡回法官（指定参加）

陈卓光，巡回法官（指定参加）

书记官： 全体起立。美国纽约南区联邦地区法院现在开庭。斯坦利·斯波金首席法官主审。

CLERK: All rise. The United States District Court for the Southern District of New York is now in session. The Honorable Stanley Sporkin, Chief Judge, presiding.

第一卷 案件背景与开庭陈述

VOLUME I: CASE BACKGROUND AND OPENING STATEMENTS

斯波金法官： 本院审理过许多案件。关于欺诈的，关于违约的，关于侵权行为的。但本案涉及的，是一个既简单又复杂的问题：一家公司，在行业需求低迷、股价从高点下跌近40%的情况下，究竟是价值陷阱，还是周期反转的机会？

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: This Court has heard many cases. Cases about fraud, about breach of contract, about torts. But the case before us today involves a question that is both simple and complex: Is a company, facing weak industry demand and a stock price down nearly 40% from its highs, a value trap or a cyclical turnaround opportunity?

斯波金法官： 这家公司就是Pool Corporation，股票代码POOL。它是全球最大的泳池用品批发分销商，占据美国市场约40%的份额。它的业务模式简单而有效——分销泳池化学品、设备、建筑材料等产品。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The company is Pool Corporation, ticker symbol POOL. It is the world‘s largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, commanding approximately 40% of the U.S. market. Its business model is simple yet effective—distributing pool chemicals, equipment, building materials, and related products.

斯波金法官： 控方由一组系统性做空基金和宏观策略师组成。其立场是：POOL是一只典型的周期股，其股价尚未充分反映新泳池建设的持续低迷和消费者支出的疲软，估值仍然偏高，空头仓位已经积累至12%以上，股价面临进一步下行压力。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The prosecution is represented by a consortium of systematic short funds and macro strategists. Their position is that POOL is a classic cyclical stock whose price has yet to fully reflect the ongoing weakness in new pool construction and consumer spending, that valuations remain elevated, that short interest has accumulated to over 12%, and that the stock faces further downside pressure.

斯波金法官： 辩方由一组多头资产管理公司和价值投资者组成。其立场是：POOL的核心业务——泳池维护——具有抗周期性，占收入的64%；公司拥有强劲的自由现金流、长达15年的股息增长历史、保守的资产负债表；随着利率环境改善和住房市场复苏，新泳池建设有望在2026-2027年触底反弹，股价存在40-60%的上行空间。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The defense is represented by a consortium of long-only asset managers and value investors. Their position is that POOL‘s core business—pool maintenance—is recession-resistant and accounts for 64% of revenue; that the company has strong free cash flow, a 15-year history of dividend increases, and a conservative balance sheet; that as interest rates improve and the housing market recovers, new pool construction is poised to bottom in 2026-2027, offering 40-60% upside.

斯波金法官： 请记录在案，本案由本院主动召集，旨在对Pool Corporation的多空争议进行司法层面的梳理与审视。本院已召集了一个由十二位杰出投资人士组成的咨询陪审团。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: Let the record reflect that this proceeding has been convened by the Court sua sponte to provide a judicial-level examination of the bull-bear debate surrounding Pool Corporation. The Court has assembled an advisory jury of twelve distinguished investment professionals.

斯波金法官： 本院现在开庭。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: We will now proceed.

第一章 基本事实

CHAPTER 1: BASIC FACTS

书记官： 以下为双方认可的基本事实。

CLERK: The following are the basic facts stipulated to by both parties.

书记官： 事实一。Pool Corporation总部位于路易斯安那州科文顿，是全球最大的泳池用品批发分销商，在美国、欧洲和澳大利亚拥有约456个销售中心。

CLERK: Fact One. Pool Corporation is headquartered in Covington, Louisiana, and is the world‘s largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, with approximately 456 sales centers across the United States, Europe, and Australia.

书记官： 事实二。公司的收入结构大致为：泳池维护用品占64%，翻新和改造占22%，新泳池建设占14%。

CLERK: Fact Two. The company’s revenue mix is approximately: pool maintenance products 64%, renovation and remodeling 22%, and new pool construction 14%.

书记官： 事实三。2025年，美国新泳池建设数量约为6万个，比2024年下降中个位数，约为疫情高峰期水平的一半，比2022年低40%。

CLERK: Fact Three. In 2025, approximately 60,000 new pools were built in the United States, a mid-single-digit decline from 2024, roughly half of pandemic-era peak levels, and 40% below 2022.

书记官： 事实四。2025财年全年，POOL实现营收约53亿美元，与上年持平；稀释每股收益为10.85美元，略低于上年同期的11.30美元。

CLERK: Fact Four. For the full fiscal year 2025, POOL reported revenue of approximately $5.3 billion, flat year-over-year; diluted earnings per share were $10.85, slightly below $11.30 in the prior year.

书记官： 事实五。截至2026年4月3日，POOL股价约为207美元，52周区间为204美元至345美元，自高点下跌约40%。

CLERK: Fact Five. As of April 3, 2026, POOL‘s stock price is approximately $207, with a 52-week range of $204 to $345, down approximately 40% from its highs.

书记官： 事实六。公司于2026年2月19日发布2025财年第四季度财报，营收9.82亿美元，略低于预期的9.99亿美元；每股收益0.84美元，低于预期的0.98美元，未达预期约14%。

CLERK: Fact Six. The company released its Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings on February 19, 2026, with revenue of $982 million, slightly below the $999 million expected; earnings per share of $0.84, below the expected $0.98, missing expectations by approximately 14%.

书记官： 双方同意以上事实。争议在于这些事实应如何解释——POOL是处于周期底部的优质资产，还是尚未跌透的价值陷阱？

CLERK: Both parties agree on the above facts. The dispute lies in how those facts should be interpreted—whether POOL is a quality asset at a cyclical bottom or a value trap that has not yet bottomed.

第二章 控方开场陈词

CHAPTER 2: PROSECUTION OPENING STATEMENT

利普顿先生： 法官阁下，各位陪审员，控方的立场是明确的：Pool Corporation是一只需要回避的股票。

MR. LIPTON: Your Honor, members of the advisory jury, the prosecution‘s position is clear: Pool Corporation is a stock to avoid.

利普顿先生： 让我出示证据。

MR. LIPTON: Let me present the evidence.

利普顿先生： 第一，新泳池建设市场正在崩溃。2025年，美国新泳池建设数量约为6万个，比疫情高峰期下降约50%。这是结构性的，不是周期性的。高利率环境抑制了住房市场，而泳池是住房的附属品。

MR. LIPTON: First, the new pool construction market is collapsing. In 2025, approximately 60,000 new pools were built in the United States, down about 50% from pandemic-era peaks. This is structural, not cyclical. The high interest rate environment has suppressed the housing market, and pools are an accessory to housing.

利普顿先生： 第二，盈利增长已经停滞。2025年全年，POOL的营收与上年持平，每股收益从11.30美元降至10.85美元。分析师对2026年的预期仅为低个位数增长。对于一个市盈率仍然高达19倍的股票来说，这种增长率是不够的。

MR. LIPTON: Second, earnings growth has stalled. For the full year 2025, POOL’s revenue was flat year-over-year, and EPS declined from $11.30 to $10.85. Analysts expect only low single-digit growth for 2026. For a stock with a P/E ratio still at 19 times, this growth rate is insufficient.

利普顿先生： 第三，估值仍然偏高。当前股价207美元，市盈率约19倍。历史数据显示，POOL的市盈率区间通常在15-25倍之间。即使按照悲观预期，股价仍处于区间中上沿。下行空间有限吗？不，下行空间还有15-20%。

MR. LIPTON: Third, valuations remain elevated. The current stock price of $207 implies a P/E ratio of approximately 19 times. Historical data shows that POOL‘s P/E multiple typically ranges between 15 and 25 times. Even under pessimistic assumptions, the stock is still in the upper half of that range. Is there limited downside? No. There is still 15-20% downside.

利普顿先生： 第四，空头正在大举建仓。根据FINRA的最新数据，POOL的空头头寸占流通股的比例已达到12.05%，这是近年来最高水平。这不仅是空头在表达看空观点，更是专业投资者在用脚投票。

MR. LIPTON: Fourth, short sellers are building large positions. According to the latest FINRA data, POOL‘s short interest as a percentage of float has reached 12.05%, the highest level in recent years. This is not just short sellers expressing a bearish view; it is professional investors voting with their feet.

利普顿先生： 第五，财报连续不及预期。2025年第四季度，POOL的每股收益为0.84美元，远低于市场预期的0.98美元，未达预期约14.29%。营收也未达预期。这已经是连续多个季度业绩令人失望。华尔街的耐心正在耗尽。

MR. LIPTON: Fifth, earnings have consistently missed expectations. In the fourth quarter of 2025, POOL’s EPS was $0.84, well below the market‘s expectation of $0.98, a miss of approximately 14.29%. Revenue also missed expectations. This is already several consecutive quarters of disappointing results. Wall Street’s patience is wearing thin.

利普顿先生： 控方的结论是明确的。Pool Corporation正处于周期性下行之中，其股价尚未充分反映这一现实。空头正在积累，分析师正在下调评级和预期。股价可能进一步下跌至160-180美元区间。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution‘s conclusion is clear. Pool Corporation is in a cyclical downturn, and its stock price has yet to fully reflect this reality. Short sellers are accumulating, and analysts are downgrading their ratings and expectations. The stock could fall further to the $160-180 range.

第三章 辩方开场陈词

CHAPTER 3: DEFENSE OPENING STATEMENT

博伊斯先生： 法官阁下，各位陪审员，辩方的立场同样明确：Pool Corporation是被市场错杀的优质资产。

MR. BOIES: Your Honor, members of the advisory jury, the defense‘s position is equally clear: Pool Corporation is a quality asset being mispriced by the market.

博伊斯先生： 让我出示证据。

MR. BOIES: Let me present the evidence.

博伊斯先生： 第一，64%的收入来自非自由裁量的泳池维护。无论经济好坏，已经建成的泳池都需要维护——需要化学品、需要过滤器、需要泵。这10.7万个现有泳池是一个稳定的收入来源。即使新泳池建设为零，这64%的业务也不会消失。

MR. BOIES: First, 64% of revenue comes from non-discretionary pool maintenance. Whether the economy is good or bad, existing pools need maintenance—they need chemicals, filters, and pumps. These 10.7 million existing pools represent a stable source of revenue. Even if new pool construction were zero, this 64% of the business would not disappear.

博伊斯先生： 第二，资产负债表非常健康。POOL的净债务与EBITDA之比仅为1.4倍，远低于行业平均水平。公司拥有强劲的自由现金流，过去12个月自由现金流在2.94亿至6.59亿美元之间。公司已连续15年提高股息，目前的股息率约为2.2%。

MR. BOIES: Second, the balance sheet is very healthy. POOL‘s net debt to EBITDA ratio is only 1.4 times, well below the industry average. The company has strong free cash flow, with free cash flow over the past 12 months ranging from $294 million to $659 million. The company has increased its dividend for 15 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of approximately 2.2%.

博伊斯先生： 第三，周期正在触底。2025年新泳池建设约为6万个，这已经是一个非常低的水平。历史数据显示，新泳池建设不太可能进一步大幅下降。随着利率环境改善和住房市场复苏，新泳池建设有望在2026-2027年反弹。这是典型的周期底部机会。

MR. BOIES: Third, the cycle is bottoming. New pool construction of approximately 60,000 units in 2025 is already a very low level. Historical data shows that new pool construction is unlikely to decline significantly further. As the interest rate environment improves and the housing market recovers, new pool construction is expected to rebound in 2026-2027. This is a classic cyclical bottom opportunity.

博伊斯先生： 第四，估值已经大幅压缩。股价从345美元的高点下跌约40%，目前的市盈率约为19倍。历史数据显示，在周期底部，POOL的市盈率通常在15-18倍之间。考虑到2027年盈利增长有望加速至8-10%，19倍的市盈率并不昂贵。如果市场情绪改善，市盈率可能回升至28-32倍的历史均值，意味着40-60%的上行空间。

MR. BOIES: Fourth, valuations have already been significantly compressed. The stock price is down approximately 40% from its high of $345, and the current P/E ratio is approximately 19 times. Historical data shows that at cyclical bottoms, POOL’s P/E ratio typically ranges between 15 and 18 times. Considering that earnings growth is expected to accelerate to 8-10% in 2027, a 19 times P/E ratio is not expensive. If market sentiment improves, the P/E multiple could revert to its historical average of 28-32 times, implying 40-60% upside.

博伊斯先生： 第五，分析师目标价仍然显著高于当前股价。15位分析师中，5位给予“强力买入”评级，8位给予“持有”评级，平均目标价为266美元，较当前股价有30%的上行空间。即使在财报不及预期后，Stifel将目标价从295美元下调至240美元，仍然高于当前价格。

MR. BOIES: Fifth, analyst price targets remain significantly above the current stock price. Among 15 analysts covering the stock, 5 recommend “Strong Buy,” 8 recommend “Hold,” and the average price target is $266, implying approximately 30% upside from current levels. Even after the earnings miss, Stifel lowered its price target from $295 to $240, which is still above the current price.

博伊斯先生： 辩方的结论同样明确。Pool Corporation是一家高质量的企业，拥有抗周期性的核心业务、健康的资产负债表、以及正在触底的周期性业务。当前价格提供了一个具有吸引力的风险收益比。这不是价值陷阱，这是周期反转的机会。

MR. BOIES: The defense‘s conclusion is equally clear. Pool Corporation is a high-quality business with a recession-resistant core business, a healthy balance sheet, and a cyclical business that is bottoming. The current price offers an attractive risk-reward ratio. This is not a value trap; it is a cyclical turnaround opportunity.

第二卷 财务数据与估值分析

VOLUME II: FINANCIAL DATA AND VALUATION ANALYSIS

第四章 财务数据审查

CHAPTER 4: FINANCIAL DATA REVIEW

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-001——POOL的关键财务比率。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-001—POOL‘s key financial ratios.

利普顿先生： 市盈率19.04倍。市净率7.01倍。市销率1.58倍。资产回报率10.37%，股本回报率33.06%。这些数字看起来不错，但问题在于趋势。

MR. LIPTON: P/E ratio 19.04 times. Price-to-book ratio 7.01 times. Price-to-sales ratio 1.58 times. Return on assets 10.37%, return on equity 33.06%. These numbers look good, but the problem is the trend.

利普顿先生： 看盈利增长：每股收益季度环比增长-12.92%，每股收益TTM同比增长-3.98%。营收季度环比增长-0.53%，营收TTM同比增长-0.41%。增长已经停滞。一个增长停滞的公司，凭什么享受19倍的市盈率？

MR. LIPTON: Look at earnings growth: EPS quarter-over-quarter growth -12.92%, EPS TTM year-over-year growth -3.98%. Revenue quarter-over-quarter growth -0.53%, revenue TTM year-over-year growth -0.41%. Growth has stalled. Why should a company with stalled growth command a 19 times P/E multiple?

博伊斯先生： 本院提交辩方证据P-001——POOL的盈利质量指标。

MR. BOIES: The defense submits Exhibit P-001—POOL‘s earnings quality metrics.

博伊斯先生： 毛利率29.73%，营业利润率10.97%，净利润率7.68%。这些利润率水平在分销行业中是非常优秀的。更重要的是，公司的股本回报率高达33.06%，远高于行业平均水平8.4%。这不是一家平庸的公司，这是一家高质量的企业。

MR. BOIES: Gross margin 29.73%, operating margin 10.97%, net profit margin 7.68%. These margin levels are excellent in the distribution industry. More importantly, the company’s return on equity is 33.06%, far above the industry average of 8.4%. This is not a mediocre company; this is a high-quality business.

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-002——POOL的债务指标。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-002—POOL‘s debt metrics.

利普顿先生： 长期负债与股本之比100.1%，总负债与股本之比129.51%。速动比率只有0.51。这意味着什么？意味着公司高度依赖库存来偿还短期债务。如果库存周转出现问题，公司将面临流动性压力。

MR. LIPTON: Long-term debt to equity 100.1%, total debt to equity 129.51%. The quick ratio is only 0.51. What does this mean? It means the company is highly dependent on inventory to meet short-term obligations. If inventory turnover encounters problems, the company will face liquidity pressure.

博伊斯先生： 辩方反对。本院提交辩方证据P-002——POOL的现金流指标。

MR. BOIES: The defense objects. The defense submits Exhibit P-002—POOL‘s cash flow metrics.

博伊斯先生： 经营现金流每股9.81美元，自由现金流充裕。净债务与EBITDA之比仅为1.4倍，远低于行业平均的2.5倍以上。速动比率低是因为分销行业的商业模式——库存就是商品。这不是弱点，这是行业特性。

MR. BOIES: Operating cash flow per share $9.81, free cash flow is ample. Net debt to EBITDA is only 1.4 times, well below the industry average of over 2.5 times. The quick ratio is low because of the distribution industry’s business model—inventory is the merchandise. This is not a weakness; it is an industry characteristic.

斯波金法官： 本院注意到双方对财务数据的解读存在根本分歧。控方强调增长停滞和债务指标，辩方强调盈利质量和现金流。本院将继续听取更多证词。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court notes that the parties have fundamental disagreements in their interpretation of the financial data. The prosecution emphasizes stalled growth and debt metrics, while the defense emphasizes earnings quality and cash flow. The Court will continue to hear further testimony.

第五章 估值分析

CHAPTER 5: VALUATION ANALYSIS

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-003——POOL的历史估值区间。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-003—POOL‘s historical valuation range.

利普顿先生： 过去五年，POOL的市盈率区间通常在15-25倍之间。当前股价207美元，2026年预期每股收益约11美元，隐含市盈率约19倍。即使按照保守估计，股价仍然处于历史区间的中上沿。下行空间至少还有15-20%。

MR. LIPTON: Over the past five years, POOL’s P/E ratio has typically ranged between 15 and 25 times. The current stock price of $207, with expected EPS of approximately $11 in 2026, implies a P/E ratio of approximately 19 times. Even under conservative estimates, the stock is still in the upper half of its historical range. Downside potential is at least 15-20%.

博伊斯先生： 本院提交辩方证据P-003——基于周期调整的估值分析。

MR. BOIES: The defense submits Exhibit P-003—Cycle-adjusted valuation analysis.

博伊斯先生： 控方的分析忽略了周期性。在周期底部，市盈率通常会高于周期顶部，因为盈利被压缩。2025年是周期的底部，盈利已经大幅低于2022-2023年的峰值水平。如果用正常化的盈利来计算，当前的市盈率实际上要低得多。随着2027年盈利增长加速至8-10%，市盈率将自然下降。

MR. BOIES: The prosecution‘s analysis ignores cyclicality. At cyclical bottoms, P/E ratios are typically higher than at cyclical peaks because earnings are compressed. 2025 is the cyclical bottom, with earnings already significantly below peak levels in 2022-2023. Using normalized earnings, the current P/E ratio is actually much lower. As earnings growth accelerates to 8-10% in 2027, the P/E multiple will naturally decline.

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-004——分析师目标价分布。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-004—Analyst price target distribution.

利普顿先生： 15位分析师中，5位强力买入，8位持有，1位中度卖出，1位强力卖出。平均目标价266美元。但请注意，这是基于2026年更高的盈利预期。财报不及预期后，分析师已经开始下调目标价。Stifel将目标价从295美元下调至240美元。这只是一个开始。

MR. LIPTON: Among 15 analysts, 5 rate Strong Buy, 8 rate Hold, 1 rate Moderate Sell, and 1 rate Strong Sell. The average price target is $266. But please note, this is based on higher earnings expectations for 2026. After the earnings miss, analysts have already begun lowering their price targets. Stifel lowered its target from $295 to $240. This is just the beginning.

博伊斯先生： 辩方提交辩方证据P-004——基于DCF模型的内在价值估算。

MR. BOIES: The defense submits Exhibit P-004—Intrinsic value estimate based on DCF model.

博伊斯先生： 使用保守的假设——永续增长率3%，折现率9%，正常化自由现金流约4亿美元——POOL的内在价值约为每股260-280美元。这意味着当前价格存在25-35%的上行空间。如果使用更乐观的假设——永续增长率4%，折现率8%——内在价值可达320-350美元。

MR. BOIES: Using conservative assumptions—perpetual growth rate 3%, discount rate 9%, normalized free cash flow approximately $400 million—POOL’s intrinsic value is approximately $260-280 per share. This implies 25-35% upside from current prices. Using more optimistic assumptions—perpetual growth rate 4%, discount rate 8%—intrinsic value could reach $320-350.

第三卷 市场情绪与空头数据

VOLUME III: MARKET SENTIMENT AND SHORT DATA

第六章 空头数据分析

CHAPTER 6: SHORT INTEREST ANALYSIS

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-005——POOL的空头头寸历史数据。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-005—Historical short interest data for POOL.

利普顿先生： 截至2026年2月13日，POOL的空头头寸为380万股，占流通股的12.05%。这是近年来最高水平。回补天数约为5天。空头正在大举建仓，他们看到了我们看不到的东西。

MR. LIPTON: As of February 13, 2026, POOL‘s short interest was 3.80 million shares, representing 12.05% of the float. This is the highest level in recent years. Days to cover is approximately 5 days. Short sellers are building large positions; they see something we do not.

博伊斯先生： 辩方提交辩方证据P-005——空头挤压风险分析。

MR. BOIES: The defense submits Exhibit P-005—Short squeeze risk analysis.

博伊斯先生： 空头头寸确实较高，但空头挤压风险评分仅为0.45（中等风险）。更重要的是，空头头寸的增加反映了市场情绪的过度悲观。当情绪过度悲观时，往往意味着底部即将到来。空头挤压可能成为股价反弹的催化剂。

MR. BOIES: Short interest is indeed elevated, but the short squeeze risk score is only 0.45 (moderate risk). More importantly, the increase in short interest reflects excessive pessimism in market sentiment. When sentiment is excessively pessimistic, it often means the bottom is near. A short squeeze could serve as a catalyst for a stock price rebound.

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-006——空头头寸变化趋势。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-006—Short interest change trend.

利普顿先生： 从2025年8月的约12.70%下降到2026年2月的12.05%？不，实际上空头头寸在2026年1月至2月期间从337万股增加到了380万股，增幅超过10%。空头正在增加他们的头寸，而不是减少。这表明他们相信股价会继续下跌。

MR. LIPTON: From approximately 12.70% in August 2025 down to 12.05% in February 2026? No, in fact, short interest increased from 3.37 million shares to 3.80 million shares between January and February 2026, an increase of over 10%. Short sellers are increasing their positions, not decreasing them. This indicates they believe the stock will continue to fall.

博伊斯先生： 本院提交辩方证据P-006——期权市场情绪分析。

MR. BOIES: The defense submits Exhibit P-006—Options market sentiment analysis.

博伊斯先生： 在过去10笔异常期权交易中，8笔是看跌期权，2笔是看涨期权。这确实反映了短期看空情绪。但请注意，大量看跌期权的行权价集中在170美元和200美元，这表明市场预期的下行空间有限。170美元比当前价格低约18%，这不是崩溃，这是回调。

MR. BOIES: In the last 10 unusual options trades, 8 were puts and 2 were calls. This does reflect short-term bearish sentiment. But note that the strike prices of the large put positions are concentrated at $170 and $200, indicating that the market expects limited downside. $170 is approximately 18% below the current price—this is not a collapse; it is a correction.

第四卷 行业分析与催化剂

VOLUME IV: INDUSTRY ANALYSIS AND CATALYSTS

第七章 行业需求分析

CHAPTER 7: INDUSTRY DEMAND ANALYSIS

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-007——新泳池建设趋势。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-007—New pool construction trends.

利普顿先生： 2025年，美国新泳池建设数量约为6万个，比2024年下降中个位数，比疫情高峰期下降约50%，比2022年低40%。新泳池建设是POOL约14%收入的来源。当新泳池建设崩溃时，这14%的收入就会消失。

MR. LIPTON: In 2025, approximately 60,000 new pools were built in the United States, a mid-single-digit decline from 2024, down about 50% from pandemic-era peaks, and 40% below 2022. New pool construction accounts for approximately 14% of POOL’s revenue. When new pool construction collapses, that 14% of revenue disappears.

博伊斯先生： 辩方提交辩方证据P-007——历史新泳池建设周期。

MR. BOIES: The defense submits Exhibit P-007—Historical new pool construction cycles.

博伊斯先生： 新泳池建设确实处于低点，但这恰恰是机会所在。历史数据显示，新泳池建设周期通常为3-5年。目前已经是周期的第三年。领先指标——如住房市场活动、HELOC利率、佛罗里达泳池许可证——显示2026年下半年可能出现反弹。CEO Peter Arvan在财报电话会上表示，年初客户对新泳池建设的情绪“更令人鼓舞”。

MR. BOIES: New pool construction is indeed at a low point, but that is precisely where the opportunity lies. Historical data shows that new pool construction cycles typically last 3-5 years. We are already in the third year of the cycle. Leading indicators—such as housing market activity, HELOC rates, and Florida pool permits—suggest a possible rebound in the second half of 2026. CEO Peter Arvan stated on the earnings call that early-year customer sentiment around new pool construction was “more encouraging than not.”

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-008——消费者支出趋势。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-008—Consumer spending trends.

利普顿先生： 翻新和改造占POOL收入的22%，这部分同样受到高利率和消费者信心疲软的影响。当消费者对经济前景感到不确定时，他们会推迟大额支出——包括泳池翻新。这22%的收入同样面临压力。

MR. LIPTON: Renovation and remodeling account for 22% of POOL’s revenue. This segment is also impacted by high interest rates and weak consumer confidence. When consumers are uncertain about the economic outlook, they defer large expenditures—including pool renovations. This 22% of revenue is also under pressure.

博伊斯先生： 辩方提交辩方证据P-008——维修业务的抗周期性。

MR. BOIES: The defense submits Exhibit P-008—The recession-resistant nature of the maintenance business.

博伊斯先生： 64%的收入来自泳池维护。这是一个非自由裁量的支出——泳池需要化学品、需要清洁、需要维修。无论经济状况如何，这10.7万个现有泳池都需要维护。即使最坏的情况发生——新泳池建设降至零、翻新支出下降50%——这64%的核心业务仍然存在。这就是POOL的护城河。

MR. BOIES: 64% of revenue comes from pool maintenance. This is a non-discretionary expenditure—pools need chemicals, need cleaning, need repairs. Regardless of economic conditions, these 10.7 million existing pools need maintenance. Even in the worst-case scenario—new pool construction falling to zero, renovation spending falling 50%—this 64% core business would still exist. This is POOL‘s moat.

第八章 催化剂分析

CHAPTER 8: CATALYST ANALYSIS

博伊斯先生： 辩方提交辩方证据P-009——2026-2027年的潜在催化剂。

MR. BOIES: The defense submits Exhibit P-009—Potential catalysts for 2026-2027.

博伊斯先生： 催化剂一：利率下降。美联储已暗示2026年可能降息。当利率下降时，住房市场将复苏，新泳池建设将随之反弹。催化剂二：盈利增长加速。分析师预计2027年EPS增长将加速至8-10%，这将推动估值修复。催化剂三：空头挤压。12%的空头头寸意味着如果股价开始上涨，空头将被迫回补，进一步推高股价。

MR. BOIES: Catalyst one: interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has signaled potential rate cuts in 2026. When rates fall, the housing market will recover, and new pool construction will rebound accordingly. Catalyst two: earnings growth acceleration. Analysts expect EPS growth to accelerate to 8-10% in 2027, which will drive valuation reversion. Catalyst three: short squeeze. 12% short interest means that if the stock price begins to rise, short sellers will be forced to cover, further pushing the price higher.

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-009——盈利预期下调趋势。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-009—Earnings estimate revision trend.

利普顿先生： 10位分析师最近下调了盈利预期。这不是乐观的信号。当分析师开始下调预期时，通常意味着他们承认自己之前的估计过于乐观。如果盈利预期继续被下调，股价将面临进一步压力。

MR. LIPTON: Ten analysts have recently lowered their earnings estimates. This is not an optimistic signal. When analysts begin lowering their estimates, it usually means they acknowledge their previous estimates were too optimistic. If earnings estimates continue to be revised downward, the stock price will face further pressure.

博伊斯先生： 辩方提交辩方证据P-010——估值修复的历史模式。

MR. BOIES: The defense submits Exhibit P-010—Historical patterns of valuation reversion.

博伊斯先生： 历史数据显示，在周期底部买入POOL的投资者通常能获得40-60%的回报。2020年疫情底部、2016年利率底部、2010年金融危机底部——每次都是如此。当前的情况与这些历史底部有很多相似之处。这不是偶然，这是周期。

MR. BOIES: Historical data shows that investors who bought POOL at cyclical bottoms typically achieved returns of 40-60%. The COVID bottom in 2020, the interest rate bottom in 2016, the financial crisis bottom in 2010—this was true every time. The current situation shares many similarities with these historical bottoms. This is not a coincidence; this is the cycle.

第五卷 咨询陪审团陈述

VOLUME V: ADVISORY JURY STATEMENTS

第九章 咨询陪审团陈述

CHAPTER 9: ADVISORY JURY STATEMENTS

沃伦·巴菲特： 我不投资我不理解的企业。POOL的业务我理解——它分销泳池用品。它的护城河是什么？规模、分销网络、客户关系。这些都是真实的。问题是价格。19倍的市盈率对于一个零增长的企业来说并不便宜。但如果周期反转，盈利恢复增长，这个价格可能被证明是合理的。我会等待更好的价格。

WARREN BUFFETT: I do not invest in businesses I do not understand. POOL’s business I understand—it distributes pool supplies. What is its moat? Scale, distribution network, customer relationships. These are real. The question is price. A 19 times P/E ratio is not cheap for a business with zero growth. But if the cycle turns and earnings resume growth, this price may prove reasonable. I would wait for a better price.

查理·芒格： 我同意巴菲特。POOL是一家好企业，但它不是伟大的企业。它没有定价权，没有技术壁垒。它的竞争优势来自于规模，但规模可以被复制。在周期底部买入，在周期顶部卖出——这需要精确的时机。我不会在19倍市盈率时买入。

CHARLIE MUNGER: I agree with Buffett. POOL is a good business, but it is not a great business. It has no pricing power, no technological moat. Its competitive advantage comes from scale, but scale can be replicated. Buying at cyclical bottoms and selling at cyclical tops—this requires precise timing. I would not buy at 19 times earnings.

彼得·林奇： 我投资我所知道的。我知道泳池需要维护，我知道这是一个稳定的业务。我也知道新泳池建设是周期性的。POOL的64%收入来自维护，这给了我信心。股价从345跌到207，下跌了40%。如果企业价值没有下降40%，那么这可能是一个机会。我会研究，但不会急于买入。

PETER LYNCH: I invest in what I know. I know pools need maintenance, I know this is a stable business. I also know new pool construction is cyclical. POOL’s 64% revenue from maintenance gives me confidence. The stock has fallen from $345 to $207, down 40%. If the business value has not fallen 40%, then this could be an opportunity. I would research, but I would not rush to buy.

斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒： 我看资金流。POOL的资金流——机构持股和空头头寸——显示出分歧。多头认为周期即将触底，空头认为还有更多下行空间。我会等待明确的方向信号，而不是现在下注。

STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER: I look at capital flows. POOL‘s capital flows—institutional ownership and short interest—show divergence. Bulls believe the cycle is bottoming, bears believe there is more downside. I would wait for a clear directional signal rather than placing a bet now.

大卫·泰珀： 我看两样东西：政策和价格。政策——利率下降将有利于住房相关股票。价格——POOL已经从高点下跌40%。这让我感兴趣。但我会等待一个催化剂——可能是美联储的明确信号或盈利超预期。

DAVID TEPPER: I look at two things: policy and price. Policy—falling interest rates will benefit housing-related stocks. Price—POOL has already fallen 40% from its highs. This interests me. But I would wait for a catalyst—perhaps a clear signal from the Federal Reserve or an earnings beat.

比尔·阿克曼： 我是一名积极主义者。POOL不是一家需要积极主义的企业。它管理良好，资本配置合理。问题是时机。我会等待更明确的周期触底信号，然后大举买入。

BILL ACKMAN: I am an activist. POOL is not a business that needs activism. It is well-managed with reasonable capital allocation. The issue is timing. I would wait for clearer signals that the cycle has bottomed, then buy aggressively.

霍华德·马克斯： 投资是关于概率的。POOL盈利增长加速的概率是多少？我认为是60%。盈利停滞的概率是40%。当前价格已经反映了一些悲观预期，但没有完全反映。我会等待更好的风险收益比。

HOWARD MARKS: Investing is about probabilities. What is the probability that POOL‘s earnings growth accelerates? I think it is 60%. The probability of earnings stagnation is 40%. The current price already reflects some pessimistic expectations, but not fully. I would wait for a better risk-reward ratio.

肯·格里芬： 我通过市场结构来看待这个问题。POOL的期权市场活跃，未平仓合约集中在170美元和200美元的看跌期权上。这表明市场预期的下行空间有限。我不会做空，但也不会重仓做多。

KEN GRIFFIN: I view this through market structure. POOL’s options market is active, with open interest concentrated in put options at $170 and $200. This indicates the market expects limited downside. I would not short, but I would not heavily go long either.

雷·达里奥： 我从系统周期来看。我们正处于利率上升周期的末期。当利率开始下降时，住房相关股票将受益。POOL的周期位置是有利的。但时机很难把握。我会逐步建仓。

RAY DALIO: I view this through system cycles. We are at the end of an interest rate rising cycle. When rates begin to fall, housing-related stocks will benefit. POOL‘s cyclical position is favorable. But timing is difficult. I would build a position gradually.

迈克尔·伯里： 我看基本面，也看市场情绪。POOL的基本面在恶化——盈利在下降，增长在停滞。市场情绪已经变得悲观——空头头寸在增加。这是一个有趣的组合。如果基本面开始改善，市场情绪将迅速反转。我会密切关注。

MICHAEL BURRY: I look at fundamentals and market sentiment. POOL’s fundamentals are deteriorating—earnings are falling, growth is stalling. Market sentiment has turned pessimistic—short interest is increasing. This is an interesting combination. If fundamentals begin to improve, market sentiment will reverse quickly. I would watch closely.

乔治·索罗斯： 控方和辩方都在试图预测一个不可预测的变量——经济周期。市场正处于反身性过程中：悲观预期推低股价，低股价进一步强化悲观预期。当这种反身性过程达到极端时，反转就会发生。我们是否已经达到了极端？空头头寸12%，股价下跌40%——接近了。但还不确定。

GEORGE SOROS: Both the prosecution and the defense are trying to predict an unpredictable variable—the economic cycle. The market is in a reflexive process: pessimistic expectations push the stock price down, and the low stock price further reinforces pessimistic expectations. When this reflexive process reaches an extreme, a reversal occurs. Have we reached an extreme? Short interest of 12%, stock price down 40%—close. But not certain.

詹姆斯·西蒙斯： 我不讨论叙事。我讨论概率分布。POOL的收益分布已经发生变化。波动性增加，与市场的相关性下降。对于这类资产，方向性预测的置信度较低。我会将其视为波动率交易，而非方向性押注。

JAMES SIMONS: I do not discuss narratives. I discuss probability distributions. POOL‘s return distribution has changed. Volatility has increased, and correlation with the market has decreased. For this type of asset, directional predictions have low confidence. I would treat it as a volatility trade, not a directional bet.

杰西·利弗莫尔（虚拟陈述）： 我在等待。等待明确的信号。价格告诉我什么？它告诉我卖盘正在枯竭，但买盘还没有出现。我会等待价格突破关键水平——可能是230美元——然后买入。在此之前，我会观望。

JESSE LIVERMORE (SIMULATED TESTIMONY): I am waiting. Waiting for a clear signal. What is the price telling me? It tells me selling pressure is drying up, but buying pressure has not yet appeared. I would wait for the price to break a key level—perhaps $230—then buy. Until then, I would watch.

第六卷 交叉质询

VOLUME VI: CROSS-EXAMINATION

利普顿先生： 本院现在开始交叉质询。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution now begins cross-examination.

利普顿先生： 博伊斯先生，您声称64%的收入来自维护业务是抗周期性的。但您是否承认，在经济衰退期间，房主可能会推迟非紧急的维护？

MR. LIPTON: Mr. Boies, you claim that 64% of revenue from the maintenance business is recession-resistant. But do you acknowledge that during a recession, homeowners may defer non-urgent maintenance?

博伊斯先生： 我承认。但“推迟”和“取消”是有区别的。泳池最终需要维护。推迟只是将收入转移到未来，而不是消灭收入。

MR. BOIES: I acknowledge that. But there is a difference between “defer” and “cancel.” Pools ultimately need maintenance. Deferral merely shifts revenue to the future, not eliminates it.

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-010——历史上经济衰退期间维护支出的数据。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-010—Historical data on maintenance spending during recessions.

利普顿先生： 数据显示，在2008-2009年金融危机期间，泳池维护支出下降了约5-10%。维护业务不是完全抗周期性的。它只是比新泳池建设更具韧性。

MR. LIPTON: The data shows that during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, pool maintenance spending fell by approximately 5-10%. The maintenance business is not completely recession-resistant. It is merely more resilient than new pool construction.

博伊斯先生： 5-10%的下降远小于新泳池建设50%的下降。这正是“抗周期性”的含义——不是没有影响，而是影响较小。

MR. BOIES: A 5-10% decline is far smaller than a 50% decline in new pool construction. That is precisely what “recession-resistant” means—not no impact, but less impact.

利普顿先生： 博伊斯先生，您是否承认2026年的盈利预期可能被进一步下调？

MR. LIPTON: Mr. Boies, do you acknowledge that 2026 earnings estimates could be further revised downward?

博伊斯先生： 我承认。如果经济状况恶化，盈利预期可能被下调。但我也指出，分析师已经将预期下调至一个非常保守的水平。进一步下调的空间有限。

MR. BOIES: I acknowledge that. If economic conditions worsen, earnings estimates could be revised downward. But I also note that analysts have already revised estimates down to a very conservative level. The room for further downward revision is limited.

利普顿先生： 本院提交控方证据D-011——POOL与行业同行的估值比较。

MR. LIPTON: The prosecution submits Exhibit D-011—Valuation comparison of POOL with industry peers.

利普顿先生： POOL的市盈率为19倍，而行业平均为24倍。看起来POOL更便宜？但请注意，行业平均被高增长的医疗和科技公司拉高了。如果只看分销行业，POOL的估值处于中上水平。

MR. LIPTON: POOL‘s P/E ratio is 19 times, while the industry average is 24 times. Does POOL look cheaper? But please note, the industry average is pulled up by high-growth healthcare and technology companies. Looking only at the distribution industry, POOL’s valuation is in the upper half.

博伊斯先生： 辩方提交辩方证据P-011——分销行业估值比较。

MR. BOIES: The defense submits Exhibit P-011—Distribution industry valuation comparison.

博伊斯先生： 在分销行业中，POOL的估值处于中位数水平。考虑到其高于平均的盈利能力和股本回报率，它应该享受估值溢价，而不是折价。

MR. BOIES: In the distribution industry, POOL‘s valuation is at the median level. Considering its above-average profitability and return on equity, it should command a valuation premium, not a discount.

第七卷 法院最终意见与裁定

VOLUME VII: FINAL OPINION AND ORDER OF THE COURT

第十章 审理范围

CHAPTER 10: SCOPE OF THE COURT‘S REVIEW

斯波金法官： 本院经过对财务数据、行业分析、市场情绪、空头数据以及十二位咨询陪审团成员的证词的全面审查，作出以下认定和裁定。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: This Court, after comprehensive review of financial data, industry analysis, market sentiment, short interest data, and the testimony of twelve advisory jury members, makes the following findings and order.

斯波金法官： 本院不裁定POOL的股价会上涨还是下跌。本院只裁定，根据截至2026年4月3日的所有公开信息，POOL的多空争议双方均提出了有合理依据的论证。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: This Court does not determine whether POOL‘s stock price will rise or fall. It determines only that, based on all publicly available information as of April 3, 2026, both sides of the POOL bull-bear dispute have presented reasonably grounded arguments.

第十一章 关于商业模式的认定

CHAPTER 11: FINDINGS ON THE BUSINESS MODEL

斯波金法官： 本院认定，POOL的商业模式具有双重特性。维护业务（占收入的64%）具有较强的韧性，但不是完全抗周期性的。新泳池建设和翻新业务（占收入的36%）具有高度的周期性，受利率和住房市场的影响显著。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court finds that POOL’s business model has a dual nature. The maintenance business (64% of revenue) has strong resilience, but is not completely recession-resistant. The new pool construction and renovation business (36% of revenue) is highly cyclical, significantly impacted by interest rates and the housing market.

斯波金法官： 本院进一步认定，POOL拥有强大的分销网络、规模优势和客户关系，构成其经济护城河。这些优势在行业低迷时期帮助公司维持盈利能力。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court further finds that POOL possesses a strong distribution network, scale advantages, and customer relationships, constituting its economic moat. These advantages help the company maintain profitability during industry downturns.

第十二章 关于财务状况的认定

CHAPTER 12: FINDINGS ON FINANCIAL CONDITION

斯波金法官： 本院认定，POOL的财务状况整体健康。公司拥有强劲的自由现金流、合理的债务水平和持续15年的股息增长记录。速动比率偏低是分销行业的特性，而非弱点。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court finds that POOL‘s financial condition is generally healthy. The company has strong free cash flow, reasonable debt levels, and a 15-year record of dividend increases. The low quick ratio is a characteristic of the distribution industry, not a weakness.

斯波金法官： 本院同时认定，POOL的盈利增长已经停滞。2025年全年营收与上年持平，每股收益同比下降约4%。2026年的增长预期仅为低个位数。盈利增长何时恢复，存在不确定性。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court also finds that POOL’s earnings growth has stalled. Full-year 2025 revenue was flat year-over-year, and EPS declined approximately 4% year-over-year. Growth expectations for 2026 are only low single digits. When earnings growth will resume is uncertain.

第十三章 关于估值的认定

CHAPTER 13: FINDINGS ON VALUATION

斯波金法官： 本院认定，POOL当前的估值处于合理区间的中上沿。基于2026年预期每股收益约11美元，隐含市盈率约为19倍。这一估值水平略高于历史周期底部的中位数（15-18倍），但显著低于历史周期顶部的中位数（25-30倍）。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court finds that POOL‘s current valuation is in the upper half of its reasonable range. Based on expected 2026 EPS of approximately $11, the implied P/E ratio is approximately 19 times. This valuation level is slightly above the median at historical cyclical bottoms (15-18 times), but significantly below the median at historical cyclical tops (25-30 times).

斯波金法官： 本院进一步认定，POOL的估值存在分歧的可能性。如果周期触底、盈利增长恢复，估值可能扩张至25-30倍，对应股价280-330美元。如果周期继续恶化、盈利进一步下降，估值可能收缩至15-18倍，对应股价165-200美元。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court further finds that POOL‘s valuation has the potential for divergence. If the cycle bottoms and earnings growth resumes, the valuation could expand to 25-30 times, corresponding to a stock price of $280-330. If the cycle continues to worsen and earnings decline further, the valuation could contract to 15-18 times, corresponding to a stock price of $165-200.

第十四章 关于市场情绪的认定

CHAPTER 14: FINDINGS ON MARKET SENTIMENT

斯波金法官： 本院认定，POOL的市场情绪偏向悲观。空头头寸占流通股的12.05%，处于近年来较高水平。分析师评级中“持有”和“卖出”的比例较高。盈利预期在过去几个月被多次下调。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court finds that market sentiment for POOL is biased toward pessimism. Short interest as a percentage of float is 12.05%, at elevated levels in recent years. The proportion of “Hold” and “Sell” ratings among analysts is high. Earnings estimates have been revised downward multiple times in recent months.

斯波金法官： 本院同时认定，过度悲观的情绪有时会创造投资机会。当市场情绪达到极端时，往往意味着最坏的情况已经被定价。本院无法判断当前的情绪是否已经达到极端，但本院注意到空头头寸的增加和股价的下跌已经持续了一段时间。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court also finds that excessively pessimistic sentiment can sometimes create investment opportunities. When market sentiment reaches extremes, it often means the worst-case scenario has already been priced in. The Court cannot determine whether current sentiment has reached an extreme, but it notes that the increase in short interest and the decline in stock price have been ongoing for some time.

第十五章 核心裁定

CHAPTER 15: CORE DETERMINATION

斯波金法官： 基于上述认定，本院作出以下核心裁定。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: Based on the foregoing findings, the Court makes the following core determination.

斯波金法官： 本院裁定，POOL当前股价207美元处于合理价值区间的中上沿，但未超出合理范围。本院无法证明当前价格构成系统性误定价。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court determines that POOL’s current stock price of $207 is in the upper half of its reasonable value range, but not outside the reasonable range. The Court cannot conclude that the current price constitutes a systemic mispricing.

斯波金法官： 本院进一步裁定，POOL是一只具有周期性的高质量企业。其长期价值取决于利率环境、住房市场复苏和新泳池建设周期的演变。对于认可周期反转逻辑的投资者，当前价格具有一定的吸引力；对于认为周期将继续恶化的投资者，当前价格不具备安全边际。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court further determines that POOL is a high-quality business with cyclicality. Its long-term value depends on the evolution of the interest rate environment, the housing market recovery, and the new pool construction cycle. For investors who believe in a cyclical turnaround, the current price has some appeal; for investors who believe the cycle will continue to worsen, the current price does not offer a margin of safety.

第十六章 对投资者的含义

CHAPTER 16: IMPLICATIONS FOR INVESTORS

斯波金法官： 本院提供以下指引。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court provides the following guidance.

斯波金法官： 第一，对于长期投资者，POOL可作为周期性配置的一部分。建议在160-200美元区间分批建仓，平均成本控制在180-190美元。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: First, for long-term investors, POOL can be part of a cyclical allocation. It is recommended to build positions in batches in the $160-200 range, with an average cost控制在$180-190.

斯波金法官： 第二，对于短线交易者，POOL的期权市场活跃，可考虑在财报前使用跨式策略捕捉波动。近期看跌期权集中分布在170美元和200美元，可供参考。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: Second, for short-term traders, POOL’s options market is active, and a straddle strategy around earnings reports could be considered to capture volatility. Recent put option concentration at $170 and $200 provides a reference.

斯波金法官： 第三，本院指出，POOL的投资风险主要包括：新泳池建设恢复不及预期、利率长期维持高位、消费者支出持续疲软、以及竞争加剧。投资者在做出决策前应充分了解这些风险。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: Third, the Court notes that the investment risks for POOL primarily include: a slower-than-expected recovery in new pool construction, interest rates remaining elevated for an extended period, persistently weak consumer spending, and intensified competition. Investors should fully understand these risks before making decisions.

第十七章 最终裁定

CHAPTER 17: FINAL HOLDING

斯波金法官： 基于以上所有认定和分析，本院作出最终裁定。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: Based on all of the foregoing findings and analysis, the Court enters its final holding.

斯波金法官： 第一条。本院裁定，POOL是一只具有周期性的高质量企业，其商业模式具有韧性。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: First. The Court determines that POOL is a high-quality business with cyclicality, and its business model has resilience.

斯波金法官： 第二条。本院裁定，当前股价207美元处于合理价值区间的中上沿，不构成系统性误定价。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: Second. The Court determines that the current stock price of $207 is in the upper half of its reasonable value range and does not constitute a systemic mispricing.

斯波金法官： 第三条。本院建议投资者根据自身的时间范围、风险承受能力以及对周期演变的判断做出决策。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: Third. The Court recommends that investors make decisions based on their own time horizons, risk tolerance, and judgments about the evolution of the cycle.

斯波金法官： 第四条。本院解散咨询陪审团。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: Fourth. The Court dissolves the advisory jury.

斯波金法官： 本案至此裁定。特此裁定。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: This matter is hereby resolved. IT IS SO ORDERED.

斯波金法官： 本院要特别说明，本案的审理不构成对POOL股票的买入或卖出建议。市场存在不确定性，投资者应根据独立研究和专业意见做出决策。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: The Court wishes to note that this proceeding does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation for POOL stock. Markets are uncertain, and investors should make decisions based on independent research and professional advice.

斯波金法官： 愿所有投资者都能在市场的波动中找到属于自己的方向。本案至此终结。

CHIEF JUDGE SPORKIN: May all investors find their own direction in the market‘s fluctuations. This case is now concluded.

书记官： 休庭。

CLERK: Court adjourned.

2026年4月3日

纽约州纽约市

斯坦利·斯波金

首席法官

美国纽约南区联邦地区法院

本庭审记录基于公开文件、财务报告、分析师报告以及十二位咨询陪审团成员的陈述整理而成。本院感谢所有专家证人和陪审团成员的贡献。本记录不构成任何投资建议，仅作为对Pool Corporation多空争议的司法审视。