The U.S. dollar, already under pressure this year, is expected to continue weakening over the next 6-12 months. A Reuters poll of currency strategists found that most believe the current trend isn’t over.
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The greenback has dropped about 10% year-to-date, as investors are shifting into currencies and assets like gold.
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A large share of analysts expect the dollar’s decline to deepen — 30 of 41 surveyed foresee further downward positioning by end of October.
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Most believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in October and December, while other major central banks may have finished their easing cycles.
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Against this backdrop:
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The euro could strengthen 1.5–3.0% to around $1.19–$1.21
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The Japanese yen may gain roughly 6%
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The Australian and New Zealand dollars could rise 4–6%
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🌍 Broader Factors at Play
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U.S. fiscal deficits and concerns about the Fed’s independence are fueling investor unease.
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Gold, which has surged more than 47% this year, is being seen as a safe haven alternative.
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The ongoing positioning of traders already favoring a weaker dollar makes a sharp turnaround less likely.
The dollar’s struggle appears far from over. With forecasts pointing toward more Fed rate cuts, many strategists anticipate the greenback will remain under pressure through year-end.
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