- Market expectations for an RBA rate cut are low, with only a 15% probability assigned to a December cut.
- On the data front, Australia's PPI growth slowed in Q3 to 3.9% QoQ but remains well above the RBA’s target.
- On the US front, disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls from October (12,000 versus 113,000 expected) weakened the Dollar, while wage inflation rose to 4%.
- The US service sector expanded in September, with the Services PMI rising to 54.9 above expectations. The bad news for the US is that the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly contracted, which flashed alarms among investors.
- Markets priced in an almost certain 25 bps Fed rate cut next week and an 85% chance of another cut in December.
- Expectations of inflationary policies under former President Trump provided additional support to the US Dollar.
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