• Fed easing expectations continue to mount, and markets are pricing in high odds of 50 bps cut.
• Analysts expect 25 bps cut on Wednesday.
• US Retail Sales data has little impact on the USD.

The US Dollar remained stable at the start of the US trading session on Tuesday, showing little response to the release of Retail Sales data as anticipated. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which is a measure of the Greenback against a basket of six currencies, edged slightly higher, pulling away from its low for the year but with only a minimal recovery. Federal Reserve (Fed) easing has become more likely, with market pricing implying a 50 bps cut, while most analysts still predict a 25 bps cut.

The US economy is experiencing growth above historical norms, indicating that the market is pricing in overly optimistic expectations of monetary policy easing. This surge in optimism may be excessive as the economic data suggests that the Fed is likely to maintain its current stance of gradual interest rate increases.