The ECB announces its rates decision today at 1415CET. The deposit rate is widely expected to be cut by 25bp to 3.50%, while in a technical adjustment, the Main Refinancing Rate will be cut by 60bp, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD to enjoy a modest bounce towards the 1.1080 area
“Our core view today is that the ECB will not offer the market enough information (be it forward guidance or new economic forecasts) to justify the roughly 11bp of easing priced in for the 17 October meeting. Our house view remains 25bp rate cuts today and 12 December. If we're right, EUR/USD should be able to enjoy a modest bounce towards the 1.1080 area.”
“Elsewhere, we have a speech from outgoing Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan at 1625CET today. He's speaking at a Swiss Bankers Association event. It is not clear he will stray near monetary policy in his speech, but we are very surprised to see the market pricing 32bp of rate cuts for the 26 September meeting.”
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