| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL LIMIT |
| Entry Point | 0.6185 |
| Take Profit | 0.6080 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6215 |
| Key Levels | 0.5980, 0.6080, 0.6185, 0.6270, 0.6350 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.6220 |
| Take Profit | 0.6080 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6185 |
| Key Levels | 0.5980, 0.6080, 0.6185, 0.6270, 0.6350 |
Current trend
After consolidation below the support level of 0.6185 last week, the NZD/USD pair is declining to 0.6150 against Friday’s US macroeconomic statistics.
The August nonfarm payrolls amounted to 142.0K against the forecast of 164.0K, and the previous value was corrected from 114.0K to 89.0K. However, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.3% to 4.2%, which the markets perceived as a sign of the sector’s resilience to the “hawkish” policy of the US Fed. After the publication of these statistics, the probability of a 25 basis point reduction in borrowing costs in September was 73.0%, and 27.0% by 50 basis points, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Instrument.
Tomorrow, investors are expecting data on New Zealand manufacturing sales, which may increase from –2.2% to 3.0% YoY, supporting the national currency to the resistance level of 0.6185 but if the value turns out to be much lower than the forecast, the decline will continue to the 0.6080 mark.
The trading instrument is moving in a long-term upward trend. At the moment, a correction is developing, within which last week, the quotes broke the support level of 0.6185 and tested it from below. In case of continued decline, the price may reach the support level of 0.6080 and the 0.5980 area. If the asset returns to 0.6185, an increase to the area of 0.6270 and then to the December high of 0.6150 may follow.
The medium-term trend remains upward. Last week, the price corrected downwards, reaching the trend support area of 0.6159–0.6145 today. Since it was held, long positions can be considered, with the target in zone 3 (0.6283–0.6269). If the support area is broken, the trend will reverse downwards, and a decline to zone 2 (0.6019–0.6005) may follow.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.6185, 0.6270, 0.6350.
Support levels: 0.6080, 0.5980.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from 0.6185, with the target at 0.6080 and stop loss 0.6215. Implementation period: 7–9 days.
Long positions may be opened above 0.6215, with the target at 0.6080 and stop loss 0.6185.
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