- The Pound Sterling posts a fresh two-week high at 1.2885 against the US Dollar (USD). The GBP/USD pair strengthens as the US Dollar falls slightly in Friday’s European trading hours after a sharp recovery on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, hovers near 103.00 after bouncing from a 10-day low of 102.27.
- The recovery move in the US Dollar was prompted by robust growth in United States (US) monthly Retail Sales for July and lower-than-expected weekly Jobless Claims. Upbeat US data diminishes fears of a recession, dashing expectations for an aggressive policy/easing response from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Finds Futures pricing data shows that the likelihood of 50 basis points (bps) interest-rate reduction has diminished to 29.5% from the 51% recorded a week ago. Even though market speculation for large rate cuts has significantly eased, expectations for a dovish decision in September remain firm.
- A lower number of US individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time consecutively for two weeks suggests that labor market conditions are not as bad as shown by the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July. The official Employment data showed soft labor demand and a significant rise in the Unemployment Rate.
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