Daily digest market movers: Suzuki lost it already

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  • At 02:30 GMT, Japanese Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki commented he is watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency. Though this time the impact resulted in a pickup in devaluation for the Japanese Yen. Markets expected to see action this Friday, not more words and same messages. 
  • At 12:30 GMT, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for May will be released. Most important will be the monthly figures:
    • Headline PCE expected to head from 0.3% to 0.0%.
    • Core PCE should have a soft landing from 0.2% to 0.1%.
  • At 13:45 GMT, Chicago Purchase Managers Index will be released. The number is expected to remain in contraction from 35.4 to 40.
  • At 14:00 GMT the University of Michigan will release June’s final reading:
    • Sentiment Index expected to head from 65.6 to 65.8.
    • Inflation expectations should remain stable at 3.1%.
  • Equities have chosen to go out with a bang, and are printing green numbers across the globe. 
  • The CME Fedwatch Tool is broadly backing a rate cut in September despite recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The odds now stand at 57.9% for a 25-basis-point cut. A rate pause stands at a 35.9% chance, while a 50-basis-point rate cut has a slim 6.2% possibility. 
  • The Overnight indexed Swap curve for Japan shows a 57.9% chance of a rate hike on July 31, and a smaller 19.8% chance for a hike on September 20. 
  • The US 10-year benchmark rate trades around the middle of this week’s range near 4.30%.
  • The benchmark 10-year Japan Treasury Note (JGB) trades around 1.05%, and is easing a touch for this week

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