Price action in the base metal complex is staving off Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) selling pressure in Copper, however the higher selling trigger, now at $9,350/t, is becoming more of an entrenched risk for the red metal, TDS commodity strategists note.  

Demand for base metals in China is weakening

“Indeed, with our gauge of global commodity demand continuing to weaken, while depressed premiums and surging inventories in the Middle Kingdom argue against fundamental tightness, there are plenty of potential catalysts that could see prices ease further from here, particularly given still bloated money manager positioning.”

“While the fundamental situation certainly looks promising in the years to come, the lack of evidence supporting current physical tightness can continue to see these money manager positions unwind.”

“Elsewhere, CTAs are modest buyers of Aluminum and Zinc but prices are close to levels that would see the buying quickly halted or reversed as current momentum signals are on the weaker side.”