EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is testing 1.0700 for a breakdown. Activity in the market remains quite restrained, as investors are in no hurry to open trading positions until new drivers of movement emerge. In particular, tomorrow the June report on consumer and business confidence will be published in the eurozone, which will help investors determine scenarios for the development of future monetary policy in the region: the Economic Sentiment index is likely to adjust from 96.0 points to 96.2 points. In turn, at 14:30 (GMT 2), the market will receive an updated estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter, which may remain at the same level of 1.3%. In addition, data Durable Goods Orders will be published: the indicator is expected to slow down in May from 0.6% to 0.0%. Statistics on Jobless Claims will also be presented: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 21 is likely to decrease from 238.0 thousand to 236.0 thousand. On Friday, investors will evaluate data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which is a key indicator of inflation for the US Federal Reserve. The Core CPE is projected to adjust from 2.8% to 2.6% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.1% in monthly terms.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with near-zero dynamics, holding near 1.2685. Trading activity remains quite low, and trading participants continue to evaluate macroeconomic statistics entering the market, mainly from the United States. Thus, among other things, the Housing Price Index from S&P/CaseShiller in April added 0.2% after zero dynamics in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.3%, and in annual terms the index slowed down from 7.5% to 7.2% with a forecast of 6.9%. In turn, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in June sharply decreased from 0.0 points to –10.0 points, with expectations of 2.0 points. In addition, investors paid attention to the results of speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, in particular, Michelle Bowman, who noted that at the moment one cannot exclude the possibility of a further increase in borrowing costs if inflation accelerates. In addition, active immigration and fiscal stimulus will continue to support price increases in the United States, so it is somewhat premature to talk about the imminent launch of a monetary easing program. Tomorrow at 11:00 (GMT 2), a report on financial stability will be presented, as well as minutes of the Bank of England meeting on monetary policy. The regulator is keeping the interest rate unchanged for now, explaining its strategy by persistent inflation risks: in May, the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, practically meeting analysts’ expectations and contributing to the correction of the annual indicator from 2.3% to 2.0% while continuing the trend of recent months, and the Core CPI excluding Fuel and Food fell from 3.9% to 3.5%. The Bank of England is expected to begin adjusting the value no earlier than September.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing quite active growth, again testing 0.6680 for a breakout and updating local highs from June 12. The reason for the emergence of upward dynamics was data on the Weighted Average Consumer Price Index in Australia, which accelerated from 3.6% to 4.0% in May, which was higher than analysts’ expectations at 3.8%. High inflation could lead the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain a wait-and-see approach or move to further tighten monetary policy to contain price pressures. With some global central banks beginning to reduce borrowing costs, such increased inflation risks support the exchange rate of the national currency. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve is also in no hurry to switch to "dovish" rhetoric, postponing the decision until at least September. The instrument was further supported yesterday by data on the Consumer Confidence Index in Australia from Westpac Banking Corp., which reflected an increase in the indicator from –0.3% to 1.7%. At the end of the week, the US market will receive macroeconomic statistics on the Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index, which will provide an understanding of the further movement of the inflation vector in the country. Analysts expect the Core PCE index to slow down in May from 2.8% to 2.6% on an annual basis and from 0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis, and the PCE — from 2.7% to 2.6% and from 0.3% to 0.0%, respectively.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing weak growth, testing 159.80 for a breakout and updating local highs from April 29. The instrument is once again approaching the same levels that led to currency intervention by the Bank of Japan in April. Since then, the rate has managed to correct, but subsequent events returned the quotes of the USD/JPY pair to the previous upward trend, which continues to this day. The main driver of this dynamics remains the high cost of borrowing, with investors arguing about how soon the US Federal Reserve will decide to reduce it, and whether to count on changes before the end of this year: now the most pressing interest rate adjustment is 25 basis points in September, and by the end of the year, investors expect two such cuts, which is slightly lower than the regulator’s official forecasts published last week (a decrease from 5.50% to 5.10%). Macroeconomic data from Japan presented the day before did not support the national currency: thus, the Leading Economic Index in April dropped from 111.6 points to 110.9 points with neutral preliminary estimates, and the Coincident Index remained at 115.2 points. Tomorrow, market participants will pay attention to the May statistics on Retail Sales: dynamics are expected to slow down from 2.4% to 2.0%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near the level of 2315.00. Quotes remain under pressure since yesterday's session and update local lows from June 18. Meanwhile, trading participants are discussing the results of speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve and, in particular, member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Michelle Bowman, who announced the possibility of further increasing the interest rate if inflation risks continue to grow. In addition, the official noted that in the near future the gap in the strategies of global regulators may increase, given the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank and some other regulators are already reducing the cost of borrowing. Such statements have fueled investor interest in data on the personal consumption expenditures - price index, which are expected at the end of the week. This indicator remains key for the US Federal Reserve in assessing average inflation in the country: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the Core CPE in May from 2.8% to 2.6% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.1% in monthly terms, while the CPE could fall from 2.7% to 2.6% and from 0.3% to 0.0%, respectively. In addition, trading participants drew attention to the acceleration of inflation in Canada: the Consumer Price Index in May increased from 2.7% to 2.9%, while analysts expected a slowdown to 2.6%. This is also likely to be reflected in the Bank of Canada's future monetary policy and will put pressure on gold, which does not generate interest income.