Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar consolidates RBA gains, eyes on PMIs

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  • RBA once more demonstrated a hawkish hold, retaining the official cash rate (OCR) at 4.35% without committing to a particular future stance, echoing their phrase “the Board is not ruling anything in or out.”
  • In her subsequent press conference, Governor Bullock reiterated the Board’s discussions about potential rate hikes and dismissed considerations of rate cuts in the near term.
  • In light of this, the RBA expressed readiness to do "what is necessary" to guide inflation back within target parameters.
  • Market anticipates nearly 50 bps of easing by December 2025, while rate hikes in August and September are yet to be ruled out.
  • Further indications will come from upcoming preliminary data from Australia’s Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) set for release on Friday.
  • Expected signs of revival in the Australian economy might command the RBA to delay rate cuts, potentially uplifting the Australian Dollar against the USD.
  • US Treasury yields saw a considerable rise, with gains exceeding 1%. The 2-year, 5-year and 10-year rates stood at 4.74%, 4.29%, and 4.27%, respectively, and seem to be driving demand toward the USD.


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