OIL TICKS UP AS MARKETS REASSESS LONG-TERM DEMAND OUTLOOK

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  • Oil ticks higher on Monday amid broad consolidation ongoing. 
  • Demand recovery faces substantial issues in the medium turn with the shift away from fossil fuels. 
  • The US Dollar Index trades above 105.50 on the back of turmoil in the European bond market. 

Oil prices are heading slightly higher on Monday, with no big headlines driving up prices. It looks like traders are evaluating and estimating how the shift to Electric Vehicles will impact demand in the medium to long term projections, while an uprising in fuel demand over the summer will certainly lead to an uprising in Oil prices in the short term. This could translate to smaller volumes traded ahead of more clarity on how to approach this change in narrative short term versus long term. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading above 105.50, with additional help from the European bond markets, which are in distress. Sovereign bonds are seeing spreads, the difference between the yield in maturity from one country against another, widening. This could cause issues for the European Central Bank (ECB) as it could cause some difficult financial conditions for some countries that need to refinance their sovereign debt in financial markets. 

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $78.32 and Brent Crude at $82.45


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