Current trend

Last week, the BTC/USD pair left the medium-term downward channel and tested the 71875.00 mark (Murrey level [7/8]) but failed to consolidate above it and corrected to the middle line of Bollinger bands.

Markets focused on the next steps of monetary authorities: the first to cut interest rates by 25 basis points were officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada, although inflation has not reached the target of 2.0%. Most experts expect that the US Fed economists will also change their rhetoric, reducing the cost of borrowing by a total of 50 basis points in September and December, which supports interest in high-risk assets. Over the four sessions of last week, the volume of investments in Bitcoin ETF reached 1.697B dollars.

Earlier, the head of Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz said that by the end of this year, BTC could exceed 100.0K dollars if it consolidates above the resistance level of 73000.00, and the upward dynamics should be facilitated by clearer regulation of the crypto industry: in May, the US House of Representatives already voted for a bill on the structure of the market. According to Novogratz, political sentiment towards the cryptocurrency ecosystem varies depending on lobbying efforts and the increasing role of cryptocurrency in financing the election campaign. In turn, the head of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission Julia Leung emphasized that over the past 15 years, the first cryptocurrency has overcome several cycles of rapid growth and decline, while demonstrating its stability as an alternative asset. Such a “dovish» position of the Hong Kong department against digital assets is explained by the fact that the region seeks to position itself as a crypto-friendly center, as evidenced by the recent approval of spot exchange-traded funds based on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Support and resistance

Last week, the price left the medium-term downward channel, trying to reverse upwards. The quotes tested the level of 71875.00 (Murrey level [7/8]) but could not consolidate above it and corrected to the middle line of Bollinger bands. If it and the 68750.00 mark (Murrey level [6/8]) are broken down, the decline may continue to the targets of 65625.00 (Murrey level [5/8]) and 62500.00 (Murrey level [4/8]). In case of a breakout of the key “bullish” level of 71875.00, it may reach the area of ​​75000.00 (Murrey level [8/8], Fibonacci extension 161.8%) and 78125.00 (Murrey level [ 1/8]). In the long term, the price has completed its downward correction and resumed growth, increasing the likelihood of positive dynamics.

Technical indicators give a buy signal: Bollinger bands reverse upwards, and the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. Stochastic is directed downwards, not excluding a limited decline.

Resistance levels: 71875.00, 75000.00, 78125.00.

Support levels: 68750.00, 65625.00, 62500.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 71875.00, with the targets of 75000.00, 78125.00, and stop loss of 69800.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened from 68000.00, with the targets of 65625.00, 62500.00, and stop loss of 70000.00.