Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar seeks recovery as BoC talks down rate cut expectations

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  • BoC Governor Macklem:
    • Canadian inflation likely to stick close to 2.9% for a few months, thanks to gas prices.
    • There’s a limit to how far Canadian and US rates can diverge.
    • Even when rates start to come down, likely to be a pretty gradual path.
    • Need to take into account any potential weakening of the CAD when considering interest rate cuts.
  • Canadian International Merchandise Trade declined -2.28 billion in March versus the forecast improvement to 1.5 billion. The previous month was revised sharply lower to 480 million from 1.39 billion.
  • US Q1 Unit Labor Costs rose to 4.7% QoQ versus the forecast 3.2%, yet another thorn in the side of inflation-fearing rate-cut hopefuls.
  • Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor report to be a key reading of US employment figures.
  • Median market forecasts expecting a print of 243K compared to the previous month’s 12-month peak of 303K.



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