In its first Monetary Policy Statement of the year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced that it would maintain the official cash rate (OCR) at 5.5%. This decision was widely expected by the market and marked the fifth consecutive time that the RBNZ chose to keep the wholesale cash rate unchanged.
While the RBNZ expressed concerns about persistent inflation, it also noted a decline in core inflation and inflation expectations. Although the risks to the inflation outlook were considered to be more balanced, headline inflation remained above the target range of 1 to 3 percent, which limited the RBNZ's tolerance for further increases in inflation.
The RBNZ made a slight downward revision to the OCR track in the near term, with a peak of 5.6 percent (previously 5.69 percent). However, the longer-term outlook remained largely unchanged. The revised track still indicated the possibility of an OCR hike later in 2024, and it suggested the potential for OCR cuts starting around the second quarter of 2025.
The central bank also highlighted risks to inflation stemming from geopolitical and climate conditions. It emphasized that a rate cut might not be implemented shortly, as the OCR needed to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period to ensure a return of headline inflation to the target range of 1 to 3 percent.
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