USD/JPY still trades around the 149 level. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the pair’s outlook.
The risk of long USD/JPY positions seemed too high
Given Tuesday's exchange rate move (chart below), why is no one really sure if we've seen an intervention? Well, there had been a lot of speculation in the run-up that the MOF might take action on a break of the 150 level in USD/JPY.
Therefore, it stands to reason that quite a few market participants wanted to sell USD/JPY as soon as this event occurred – because then the risk of long USD/JPY positions seemed too high. If many do this at the same time, a market reaction can occur that looks like an intervention
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