Retail Sales Overview
Early Monday, around 01:30 AM GMT, the market sees preliminary readings of Australia's seasonally adjusted Retail Sales for July month. Market consensus suggests an improvement in the seasonally adjusted monthly print to 0.3% MoM from -0.8% prior.
The Aussie Retail Sales figures appear more important for the AUD/USD pair this time after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest policy pivot, as well as the weekend headlines suggesting fears of economic slowdown due to ties with China. It’s worth noting that the recent softer inflation and employment numbers keep the RBA doves hopeful, which in turn highlights today’s Aussie data as it bears upbeat expectations.
Ahead of the data, Analysts at ANZ appear to give less importance to the Aussie Retail Sales while stating,
This week sees the first of the Q2 GDP partials in construction work done and capex as well as the July monthly CPI. The latter will attract attention given the jump in inflationary measures in the latest NAB monthly business survey. We’re currently looking for real GDP growth of 0.2% in Q2 (1.7% y/y).
How could it affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high with mild gains around 0.6420 by the press time, after declining in the last six consecutive weeks.
The Aussie pair’s latest rebound could be linked to China’s stimulus measures announced during the weekend, as well as positioning for this week’s top-tier economics from the US and Australia.
That said, the recent chatters surrounding the Aussie recession, as well as receding monetary policy divergence between the RBA and the Fed, may seek validation from today’s Aussie Retail Sales data. Hence, a surprise recovery in the key statistics may allow the AUD/USD to extend the latest corrective bounce.
It should be noted, however, that the Aussie data may have a knee-jerk reaction for the AUD/USD pair as traders are more interested in a slew of US and Aussie data offering inflation and employment clues.
Technically, a downward-sloping support line from early March, around 0.6350 by the press time, restricts the immediate downside of the AUD/USD pair even if a six-week-old falling resistance line, close to 0.6430 by the press time, restricts the Aussie pair’s rebound
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