Current trend

The price of North American WTI Crude Oil is correcting in an uptrend at 83.72. 

Last week, oil production in the USA immediately increased by 400.0K barrels per day, to 12.6M barrels per day. Thus, the average level over the past four weeks has been fixed at 12.325M barrels per day, which is much higher than last year's average of 11.91M barrels per day. Moreover, experts suggest that the monthly increase in the production of "black gold" led to the fact that in July the figure reached 12.73M barrels per day and against this background, the annual forecast for average production in the USA was increased by 200.0K barrels to 12.76M barrels per day.

Commercial oil reserves this week also increased by 4,067M barrels compared to -15,400M barrels a week earlier, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), the indicator has been adjusted. A similar report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) reflected an increase of 5.851M barrels compared to last week's dynamics at the level of -17.049M barrels. In Cushing's storages, reserves were replenished by 0.159M barrels after a decrease of -1.259M barrels earlier. 

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price is held above the resistance line of the global channel with dynamic boundaries of 61.00–78.00 and is now attempting to strengthen the upward movement.

Technical indicators fix a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator keep the oscillation range pointing upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new ascending bars, rising in the buy zone.  

Support levels: 82.30, 78.70.

Resistance levels: 84.70, 88.70.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price consolidation above the local resistance level of 84.70 with a target at 88.70. Stop-loss – 83.00. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the local support level of 82.30 with a target at 78.70. Stop-loss – 84.00.