Scenario
Timeframe	Weekly
Recommendation	SELL STOP
Entry Point	0.8665
Take Profit	0.8544, 0.8300
Stop Loss	0.8750
Key Levels	0.8300, 0.8544, 0.8667, 0.8789, 0.8911, 0.9033

Alternative scenario
Recommendation	BUY STOP
Entry Point	0.8790
Take Profit	0.8911, 0.9033
Stop Loss	0.8705
Key Levels	0.8300, 0.8544, 0.8667, 0.8789, 0.8911, 0.9033

Current trend

This week the USD/CHF pair rose to 0.8789 (Murrey level [0/8]), where it has been trading for several sessions.

The market is uncertain before the publication of the July data from the US labor market: it is expected that unemployment will remain at the same level of 3.6%, and the employment rate will slow down growth from 209.0K to 200.0K. It is worth considering that the leading indicator of employment from the company Automatic Data Processing (ADP) significantly exceeded the experts’ forecasts of 189.0K, reaching 324.0K. Today’s positive statistics will support the positions of the US currency, as the US Federal Reserve officials will have a new argument in favor of maintaining the hawkish rhetoric.

Economic statistics from Switzerland support the national currency: in July, the consumer price index fell from 0.1% to –0.1% MoM and from 1.7% to 1.6% YoY, against which the Swiss National Bank may leave the interest rate at 1.75%.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is testing 0.8789 (Murrey level [0/8]), after consolidation above which the quotes will be able to leave the current downward channel and rise to 0.8911 (Murrey level [1/8]) and 0.9033 (Murrey level [2/8]). The key “bearish” level is the middle line of Bollinger bands around 0.8667 (Murrey level [–1/8]), a breakdown of which allows the price to reach 0.8544 (Murrey level [–2/8]) and 0.8300 (Murrey level [ 2/8], W1).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are directed downwards, and Stochastic is preparing to leave the overbought zone, however, the MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.8789, 0.8911, 0.9033.

Support levels: 0.8667, 0.8544, 0.8300.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 0.8667 with the targets at 0.8544, 0.8300 and stop loss around 0.8750. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 0.8789 with the targets at 0.8911, 0.9033 and stop loss around 0.8705.

USD/CHF: IN ANTICIPATION OF JULY US EMPLOYMENT DATA