Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 0.6720 Take Profit 0.6480 Stop Loss 0.6800 Key Levels 0.6285, 0.6478, 0.6800, 0.6905, 0.7015
Alternative scenario Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 0.6800 Take Profit 0.6905 Stop Loss 0.6750 Key Levels 0.6285, 0.6478, 0.6800, 0.6905, 0.7015
Current trend
Against high inflation and the weakening of the real estate sector in Australia, the AUD/USD pair is falling to around 0.6478.
Building permits data for June released today showed a negative trend of –7.7%, below the forecast of –7.0%, and the previous value was corrected from 20.6% to 20.5%. The number of issued housing loans decreased by 2.8% compared to the forecast of 1.7% and the previous value of 5.1%.
The main event of the week was the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy, in which the interest rate remained at an 11-year high of 4.10%, although analysts had expected an increase to 4.35%. The agency’s officials stressed that the hawkish rhetoric helped to significantly reduce consumer demand but further tightening of monetary stimulus may be required to combat rising prices.
The long-term trend is downward: after unsuccessful attempts to break through the resistance area of 0.6905–0.6800, the trading instrument is heading to the May low of 0.6478, after consolidation below which the next target will be 0.6285. To reverse the trend towards the target for purchases at 0.7015, the price needs to overcome 0.6905.
The mid-term trend reversed downward last week after breaking through the 0.6724–0.6707 zone. The selling target was zone 2 (0.6554–0.6537), and the key resistance of the range is shifting to the area of 0.6809–0.6792, after the correction, short positions with the first target at last week’s low at 0.6625 are relevant.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6905, 0.7015
Support levels: 0.6478, 0.6285.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from 0.6720 with the target at 0.6480 and stop loss around 0.6800. Implementation period: 9–12 days.
Long positions may be opened above 0.6800 with the target at 0.6905 and stop loss around 0.6750.
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.6720 |
| Take Profit | 0.6480 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6800 |
| Key Levels | 0.6285, 0.6478, 0.6800, 0.6905, 0.7015 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.6800 |
| Take Profit | 0.6905 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6750 |
| Key Levels | 0.6285, 0.6478, 0.6800, 0.6905, 0.7015 |
Current trend
Against high inflation and the weakening of the real estate sector in Australia, the AUD/USD pair is falling to around 0.6478.
Building permits data for June released today showed a negative trend of –7.7%, below the forecast of –7.0%, and the previous value was corrected from 20.6% to 20.5%. The number of issued housing loans decreased by 2.8% compared to the forecast of 1.7% and the previous value of 5.1%.
The main event of the week was the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy, in which the interest rate remained at an 11-year high of 4.10%, although analysts had expected an increase to 4.35%. The agency’s officials stressed that the hawkish rhetoric helped to significantly reduce consumer demand but further tightening of monetary stimulus may be required to combat rising prices.
The long-term trend is downward: after unsuccessful attempts to break through the resistance area of 0.6905–0.6800, the trading instrument is heading to the May low of 0.6478, after consolidation below which the next target will be 0.6285. To reverse the trend towards the target for purchases at 0.7015, the price needs to overcome 0.6905.
The mid-term trend reversed downward last week after breaking through the 0.6724–0.6707 zone. The selling target was zone 2 (0.6554–0.6537), and the key resistance of the range is shifting to the area of 0.6809–0.6792, after the correction, short positions with the first target at last week’s low at 0.6625 are relevant.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6905, 0.7015
Support levels: 0.6478, 0.6285.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from 0.6720 with the target at 0.6480 and stop loss around 0.6800. Implementation period: 9–12 days.
Long positions may be opened above 0.6800 with the target at 0.6905 and stop loss around 0.6750.
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