Economists at BNP Paribas believe that the USD is in the early stages of a structural decline and expect EUR/USD to rise to 1.18 and USD/JPY to drop to 123 by end-2024.
USD is in the early stages of a structural decline
The USD is in the early stages of a significant, structural decline. The decline may not be linear.
The recent weakness in the USD is likely a result of diminished recession risks, reflected in resilient activity data and ongoing disinflation. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is increasingly guiding for a stronger CNY, and the risks of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) widening its Yield Curve Control (YCC) are escalating, both of which weigh on the USD/JPY. We believe there is scope for these moves to continue.
We forecast that EUR/USD will rise to 1.18 and USD/JPY will fall to 123 by the end of 2024.
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