Economists at Commerzbank have revised their USD/RUB forecast path higher this month after the exchange rate weakened significantly and reached their end-2024 target of 90 already.
USD/RUB is currently solely driven by the current-account balance
Due to the sanctions, the RUB exchange rate now only reflects current account flows. Hence, the Ruble is likely to depreciate medium-term due to the declining current account surplus.
We now forecast 120 for end-2024.
Russia’s central bank (CBR) CBR has signalled that it is concerned about upside risk to inflation (partly a consequence of the weaker exchange rate), and will start a rate hiking cycle beginning its 21 July meeting. Rate hikes, however, do not have direct FX implications at this time.
Peringatan: Pendapat yang disampaikan sepenuhnya merupakan milik penulis dan tidak mencerminkan posisi resmi Followme. Followme tidak bertanggung jawab atas keakuratan, kelengkapan, atau keandalan informasi yang disediakan, serta tidak bertanggung jawab atas tindakan apa pun yang diambil berdasarkan konten ini, kecuali dinyatakan secara tertulis.
Tinggalkan pesan Anda sekarang