Current trend

Against the stabilization of the US currency, the GBP/USD pair is correcting around 1.2625.

The macroeconomic statistics presented today did not live up to experts’ expectations: Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1%, which led to a slowdown in the annual rate to 0.2% from 0.6% earlier, bringing it closer to the negative zone. The housing price index from the British Nationwide Building Society, which measures the change in the average price of a house with a mortgage issued by it, corrected by –3.5% in June, which is worse than –3.4% a month earlier.

The US dollar strengthened to 102.900 in the USD Index against the background of positive data on the labor market: initial jobless claims amounted to 239.0K, down from 265.0K a week earlier, although analysts expected growth to 266.0K applications. The total claims number reached 1.742M, less than 1.761M before. Gross domestic product (GDP) is at 2.0% instead of 1.4% expected by analysts, and despite its decrease from 2.6% earlier, the slowdown in the pace of negative dynamics encourages investors.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is kept within the global ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.2600–1.3000, actively approaching the support line and ready to overcome it.

Technical indicators are weakening the global buy signal, which may change to a downward one as early as the beginning of next week: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming downward bars, approaching the transition level.

Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2850.

Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2310.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a reversal, reduction, and consolidation of the price below 1.2500 with the target at 1.2310. Stop loss – 1.2600. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 1.2700 with the target at 1.2850. Stop loss – 1.2650.