The Rupiah is one of the few currencies in the region still offering positive carry over the USD. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze IDR outlook.
IDR resilience can be maintained
Importantly, the country’s <wbr>current account surplus has <wbr>increased to 1.2% of GDP in <wbr>Q1, the highest since Q2 2010.<wbr> This has reduced the country’s reliance on capital flows and resulted in reduced volatility in the currency.
Export performance has started to weaken recently due to a dip in external demand and lower global commodity prices. This may halt the increase in the current account, but an overall balance of payments surplus for 2023 will ensure that IDR resilience can be maintained.
We see the Rupiah continuing to benefit from carry demand and see scope for further gains
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