Economists at ABN Amro have downgraded their forecasts for EUR/USD due to four reasons.
Speculative positions in the Euro are extremely large
First, we no longer have a rate cut for the Fed this year and fewer total rate cuts in 2023-2024. This is a positive for the US Dollar.
Second, if the ECB starts cutting rates already in December the euro will suffer. Third, aggressive rate cuts by the ECB in 2024 will put more downward pressure on the Euro than Fed cuts will on the Dollar. This is because markets have already anticipated large rate cuts by the Fed but not by the ECB.
Fourth, the speculative positions in the Euro are extremely large.
Our new forecasts are 1.08 (end 2023) and 1.05 end 2024
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