Economists at Credit Suisse analyze JPY outlook ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting next week.
Highly unlikely the BoJ would think about signaling a policy change
Disappointing Japanese wage data are reducing risks of a hawkish turn in BoJ policy at the upcoming 15-16 Jun, with negative implications for JPY.
We suspect the BoJ will be content to see this unfold for now rather than try to signal a tighter policy stance.
Only if USD/JPY drives higher towards our near-term 145 target would we expect a reaction. But even then, it is first likely to be verbal or actual FX intervention rather than through signalling a monetary policy shift.
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