As for the Nonfarm Payrolls, markets anticipate a still firm pace in Feb after an unexpected 517k surge in Jan and the UE rate to stay unchanged at 3.4% with wage growth printing another strong 0.4% for the month. In a deeper dive, analysts at ANZ bank said that ''last year, the US economy created 4.8m nonfarm payroll jobs. In the 2010s, the average annual jobs creation was 2.2m. Returning jobs growth to that historical average pace requires monthly jobs growth to slow to just 180k. Even that may still be too strong for inflation to return to 2.0% given ongoing labour supply issues,'' the analysts explained. ''The CBO estimates that the increase in the workforce this year will be 1.2m, and 1.1m in 2024. This would suggest that balancing the labour market requires average monthly jobs growth of 100k or less. Given strong labour market demand, such projections by the CBO imply the scarcity of skilled workers will continue, firms will continue to hoard labour and unemployment may remain at current lows. That just means a more hawkish Fed.''
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