USD outlook: BEARISH

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The USDollar sold off again this week, weighed by an abysmal NFP print released on Friday. But it made a fast approach towards support that currently holds the two-month-low.

It was another week of losses, continuing the sell-off from the prior week after the currency had topped out on the previous Frida, the two-week sell-off has nearly wiped out the entirety of the gains from the mid-August rally, price action in the USD is heading towards the same spot of support that helped
to hold the lows in late-July into early-August. This runs between confluent Fibonacci levels plotted at 91.82 and 91.93, with the latter of those prices being the 38.2% retracement of the 2011-2017 major move.



At this point, it seems as though there may be scope for more weakness: At Jackson Hole in August, Jerome Powell said the US economy had not quite met the mark for ‘significant forward progress’ in terms of employment.

And then August Non-farm Payrolls came out abysmally bad, and this doesn’t exactly provide for strong context going into the September FOMC rate decision. So it’s difficult to imagine how the Fed could get more hawkish here, especially as Covid case numbers continue to rise. The seemingly bearish fundamental backdrop meshes with the current bearish trend, and this allows for
a bearish forecast for the USD going into next week.